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Psychological distress in adolescence and later economic and health outcomes in the United States population: A retrospective and modeling study
by Nathaniel Z. Counts, Noemi Kreif, Timothy B. Creedon, David E. Bloom
BackgroundFederal policy impact analyses in the United States do not incorporate the potential economic benefits of adolescent mental health policies. Understanding the extent to which economic benefits may offset policy costs would support more effective policymaking. This study estimates the relationship between adolescent psychological distress and later health and economic outcomes and uses these estimates to determine the potential economic effects of a hypothetical policy.
Methods and findingsThis analysis estimated the relationship between psychological distress in those aged 15 to 17 years in 2000 and economic and health outcomes approximately 10 years later, accounting for an array of explanatory variables using machine learning–enabled methods. The cohort was from the National Longitudinal Study of Youth 1997 and nationally representative of those aged 12 to 18 years in 1997. The cohort included 3,343 individuals under age 18 years in round 4 who completed the Mental Health Inventory-5 (MHI-5). Round 1 captured 50 explanatory variables that covered domains of potential confounders, including basic demographics, neighborhood environment, family resources, family processes, physical health, school quality, and academic skills. The exposure included a binary variable of clinically significant psychological distress (MHI-5 score of less than or equal to 3) and a categorical variable of symptom severity on the MHI-5. Outcomes covered domains of employment, income, total assets at age 30 years, education, and health approximately 10 years later.Forty-seven percent of the cohort were black and Hispanic, and 4.4% had past-month clinically significant psychological distress. Past-month clinically significant psychological distress in adolescence led to a 6-percentage-point (95% confidence interval [CI] [−0.08, −0.03]) reduction in past-year labor force participation 10 years later and $5,658 (95% CI [−6,772, −4,545]) USD fewer past-year wages earned. We used these results to model the labor market impacts of a hypothetical policy that expanded access to mental health preventive care and reached 10% of youth who would have otherwise developed clinically significant psychological distress. We found that the hypothetical policy could lead to $52 (95% credible interval [51,54]) billion USD in federal budget benefits over 10 years from labor supply impacts alone. This study faced limitations, including potential unmeasured confounding, missing data, and challenges to generalizability.
ConclusionsOur findings showed the impacts of adolescent mental health policies on the federal budget and found potentially large effects on the economy if policies achieve population-level change.
Maternal and perinatal outcomes after implementation of a more active management in late- and postterm pregnancies in Sweden: A population-based cohort study
by Karin Källén, Mikael Norman, Charlotte Elvander, Christina Bergh, Verena Sengpiel, Henrik Hagberg, Teresia Svanvik, Ulla-Britt Wennerholm
BackgroundThe risk of perinatal death and severe neonatal morbidity increases gradually after 41 weeks of pregnancy. We evaluated maternal and perinatal outcomes after a national shift from expectancy and induction at 42+0 weeks to a more active management of late-term pregnancies in Sweden offering induction from 41+0 weeks or an individual plan aiming at birth or active labour no later than 42+0 weeks.
Methods and findingsWomen with a singleton pregnancy lasting 41+0 weeks or more with a fetus in cephalic presentation (N = 150,370) were included in a nationwide, register-based cohort study. Elective cesarean sections were excluded. Outcomes during period 1, January 2017 to December 2019 (before the shift) versus outcomes during period 2, January 2020 to October 1, 2023 (after the shift) were analysed. For comparison, outcomes of pregnancies lasting 39+0 to 40+6 weeks (N = 358,548) were also studied.Primary outcomes were: First, peri/neonatal death (stillbirth or neonatal death before 28 days); second, composite adverse peri/neonatal outcome (peri/neonatal death, Apgar score <4 at 5 min, hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy grades 1–3, meconium aspiration syndrome, birth trauma, or admission to a neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) ≥4 days); third, composite adverse peri/neonatal outcome excluding admission to NICU; and fourth, emergency cesarean section. Secondary outcomes included the components of the primary composite outcomes. Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for binary outcomes period 2 versus period 1 were computed using modified Poisson regression analyses with adjustments for maternal age, parity, body mass index (BMI), smoking, and educational level.Induction rates among pregnancies lasting 41+0 weeks or more increased from 33.7% in period 1 to 52.4% in period 2. Mean (standard deviation) gestational age at birth decreased from 290.7 (2.9) days to 289.6 (2.3) days. Infants born during period 2 were at lower risk of peri/neonatal death compared to infants born during period 1; 0.9/1,000 versus 1.7/1,000 born infants (adjusted RR 0.52; 95% CI [0.38, 0.69]; p < 0.001), and they had a lower risk of having the composite adverse neonatal outcome, both including (50.5/1,000 versus 53.9/1,000, adjusted RR 0.92; 95% CI [0.88, 0.96]; p < 0.001) or excluding NICU admission (18.5/1,000 versus 22.5/1,000, adjusted RR 0.79; 95% CI [0.74, 0.85]; p < 0.001). The cesarean section rate increased from 10.5% in period 1 to 11.9% in period 2 (adjusted RR 1.07; 95% CI [1.04, 1.10]; p < 0.001). For births at 39 to 40 weeks the adjusted RR for peri/neonatal death was 0.86 (95% CI [0.72, 1.02]). One limitation of the study is that we had no data on to what extent monitoring of fetal health was performed.
ConclusionsA more active management of pregnancies lasting 41+0 weeks or more was associated with a decrease in peri/neonatal deaths, and a decrease in composite adverse peri/neonatal outcomes. Increased rate of emergency cesarean sections was observed. Women with pregnancies advancing towards 41 gestational weeks should be given balanced information on the benefits and risks of induction of labour at 41 weeks compared to expectant management until 42 weeks and be offered induction of labour at 41 weeks or active surveillance of pregnancies from 41 weeks in order to decrease peri/neonatal mortality.