National Post

U.S. President Donald Trump downplayed the steep drop in international tourists to the U.S. during a scrum with reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday.

“It’s not a big deal,” he responded to a reporter in an exchange shared by CBS News on X . She had remarked that “there are fewer people suddenly that want to travel to the United States.”

He suggested citizens from other countries were probably displaying national pride. “There is a little nationalism there, I guess, perhaps.”

Then he shifted to other topics such as the impact of China and Japan keeping their currencies low relative to the U.S. dollar, making it hard to see American tractors there.

But the reporter persisted and asked whether incidents of international travellers being detained at U.S. entry points might be deterring tourists.

Trump continued to downplay the issue: “No, we treat our tourists great. We are the tourism capital of the world. There’s no place like this and there may be a little bit of nationalism, but I doubt it.”

President Donald Trump told CBS News' @nancycordes he thinks one of the reasons tourism to the U.S. is down could be due to "nationalism" on the part of tourists from other countries, though also said he “doubts it.”

“There’s a little nationalism there, I guess, perhaps,” he… pic.twitter.com/kXW9V4JJzY

— CBS News (@CBSNews) April 24, 2025

 

The steep decline in visitors to the U.S. has been attributed to a combination of factors , including Trump’s tariffs, confrontational rhetoric, travel advisories issued by other countries, and — as noted in the Oval Office exchange — high-profile detentions of foreign visitors.

Canadians cancelling trips to U.S. amid fear of difficulty at U.S. border

Several countries, including Canada , Germany, France and the U.K., have updated their travel advisories, warning citizens about potential difficulties when visiting the U.S.

The recent shift is pronounced among travellers from Canada and Western Europe , historically the largest sources of foreign visitors to the U.S. For instance, there were 17 per cent fewer land border crossings by Canadians in March (nearly 900,000 fewer travellers), with 31.9 per cent fewer returning visitors by land and 13.5 per cent fewer by air .

Drop in visitors to U.S. is worldwide

In March 2025, there was an 11.6 per cent year-over-year decrease in overseas visitors to the U.S., contributing to a projected  5.5 per cent annual decline for 2025, according to Tourism Economics.  This follows a  3.3 per cent global visitor drop (air, sea and land) in early 2025 compared to 2024 .

“ Travel to the U.S. from almost everywhere is falling under Trump,” wrote the WWU Center for Economic and Business Research in an April 20 post to X that included a chart showing declines from many parts of the world.

Travel to the U.S. from almost everywhere is falling under Trump. If sustained, the drop could translate to billions of dollars in lost tourism revenue, industry experts project. https://t.co/aM22LnOJ6C pic.twitter.com/4qzQV8oTG5

— WWU Center for Economic and Business Research (@PugetSoundEF) April 20, 2025

 

Tourism is a crucial economic sector for U.S.

But tourism is a vital sector of the U.S. economy , supporting millions of American jobs and contributing significantly to tax revenues and local economies. Even a 10 per cent drop in Canadian tourism could result in a $2.1-billion loss in spending and put 140,000 jobs in the U.S. hospitality sector at risk.

So, despite Trump’s response, industry experts and economic analysts have warned that the decline in tourism could have substantial economic repercussions, with estimates of up to $90 billion in lost revenue for the U.S. economy this year.

Tourism industry groups and economic analysts have sounded the alarm, warning that the combination of trade hostilities and a hostile travel environment could destabilize the entire U.S. tourism economy. The United States Tour Operators Association has specifically cautioned that continued tariff hikes and political tensions could cost the industry up to $64 billion this year, with a projected 9.4 per cent decline in international visitors for 2025.

The anticipated decline in tourism has already prompted airlines, such as Air Canada , to cut flights to U.S. destinations due to decreased demand, further compounding economic losses in affected regions.

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OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Mark Carney is admitting that U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to annex Canada to the United States during their call on March 28 despite claiming publicly at the time that Trump “respected Canada’s sovereignty.”

Carney first made the admission on Thursday after Radio-Canada reported that Trump brought up the idea of making Canada the 51st state during their exchange last month.

It seemingly contradicted what Carney stated publicly at the time, which was that Trump “respected Canada’s sovereignty” in his public and private comments. That was widely reported and seen as a first step in repairing the relationship between both countries.

“To be clear, as I’ve said to anyone who’s raised this issue in private or in public, including the President, it will never happen,” said Carney in Coquitlam, British Columbia, about Trump’s threat to annex Canada by economic force.

Carney reiterated they had a “constructive” discussion and said they both agreed to begin comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the U.S. “as sovereign nations” immediately following the federal election.

During the media availability, Carney seemed irritated by the reporters’ repeated questions on why he never mentioned Trump’s mention of the 51st state after his call with him.

“Look, the president says lots of things, but the essence of the discussion and where we moved the conversation to was exactly what I said,” he said.

“We talked about lots of things, okay? And what’s important is the conclusions of the call, the results of the call, and those are exactly the same on the American side and the Canadian side… And those were that it was very constructive,” he added.

Trump had indeed struck a seemingly more respectful tone in his read-out of his call with Carney last month and dialed back his talk of Canada becoming the 51st state. He has also not called Carney the “governor” of Canada, as he usually did with Justin Trudeau.

Last week, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied there was a change of stance on the annexation of Canada and said Trump still “believes that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the 51st state of the United States of America.”

On Wednesday, Trump inserted himself into Canada’s federal election during a signing ceremony inside the Oval Office, saying Canada “would cease to exist as a country” if the U.S. stopped buying its goods and that Canada “as a state, it works great.”

“He has these things in his mind. This is not news,” said Carney. “He raises it all the time. But then the question is, what’s going to be done with it? And does he understand where we stand? More particularly, where do I stand? He is under no illusions.”

Other party leaders chastised Carney for not being entirely truthful on March 28.

“I think what we’ve learned from this phone call with Donald Trump is that Mr. Carney was not being straight up with Canadians,” said NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Singh wondered what else Carney would not disclose if he were elected at the head of a majority government: “If he’s not going to tell us about a phone call, what about the details of the negotiations? And what about what he’s willing to trade away?”

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet accused Carney of “manipulating” the truth with “little precaution” to give the impression that he is a strong negotiator.

Blanchet was asked if it may have been a deliberate strategy to remind Canadians of Trump’s threat at a time where Liberal sources are claiming polls might be tighter than anticipated in key battlegrounds like in Quebec which could cost them their majority.

“I’m not their strategist, I’m not imagining wild conspiracies, but I can imagine that it serves them,” said Blanchet.

“Liberals are (juggling) between pretending that Mr. Carney has extinguished the threat (of Trump annexing Canada) and regularly resurrecting that threat because fear has been their main argument at the start of the Liberal campaign,” he added.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre opted to remain prudent in his comments about the call.

“I wasn’t there. But what’s clear is that we will stand up for our sovereignty, we will never be an American state, and we will focus on what we can control, which is to reverse the disastrous Liberal economic policies that Mark Carney advised Justin Trudeau to take.”

Carney said that Trump reiterating his threat of annexation is underscoring in his opinion just how important the choice facing Canadians on Monday.

“Who can stand up to President Trump, who can build Canada strong, who has the experience in order to do that? That’s the crucial choice that Canadians need to make.”

With files from the Associated Press. 

National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com

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OTTAWA — Liberal Leader Mark Carney is admitting that U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his threat to annex Canada to the United States during their call on March 28 despite claiming publicly at the time that Trump “respected Canada’s sovereignty.”

Carney first made the admission on Thursday after Radio-Canada reported that Trump brought up the idea of making Canada the 51st state during their exchange last month.

It seemingly contradicted what Carney stated publicly at the time, which was that Trump “respected Canada’s sovereignty” in his public and private comments. That was widely reported and seen as a first step in repairing the relationship between both countries.

“To be clear, as I’ve said to anyone who’s raised this issue in private or in public, including the President, it will never happen,” said Carney in Coquitlam, British Columbia, about Trump’s threat to annex Canada by economic force.

Carney reiterated they had a “constructive” discussion and said they both agreed to begin comprehensive negotiations about a new economic and security relationship between Canada and the U.S. “as sovereign nations” immediately following the federal election.

During the media availability, Carney seemed irritated by the reporters’ repeated questions on why he never mentioned Trump’s mention of the 51st state after his call with him.

“Look, the president says lots of things, but the essence of the discussion and where we moved the conversation to was exactly what I said,” he said.

“We talked about lots of things, okay? And what’s important is the conclusions of the call, the results of the call, and those are exactly the same on the American side and the Canadian side… And those were that it was very constructive,” he added.

Trump had indeed struck a seemingly more respectful tone in his read-out of his call with Carney last month and dialed back his talk of Canada becoming the 51st state. He has also not called Carney the “governor” of Canada, as he usually did with Justin Trudeau.

Last week, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt denied there was a change of stance on the annexation of Canada and said Trump still “believes that Canadians would benefit greatly from becoming the 51st state of the United States of America.”

On Wednesday, Trump inserted himself into Canada’s federal election during a signing ceremony inside the Oval Office, saying Canada “would cease to exist as a country” if the U.S. stopped buying its goods and that Canada “as a state, it works great.”

“He has these things in his mind. This is not news,” said Carney. “He raises it all the time. But then the question is, what’s going to be done with it? And does he understand where we stand? More particularly, where do I stand? He is under no illusions.”

Other party leaders chastised Carney for not being entirely truthful on March 28.

“I think what we’ve learned from this phone call with Donald Trump is that Mr. Carney was not being straight up with Canadians,” said NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh.

Singh wondered what else Carney would not disclose if he were elected at the head of a majority government: “If he’s not going to tell us about a phone call, what about the details of the negotiations? And what about what he’s willing to trade away?”

Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet accused Carney of “manipulating” the truth with “little precaution” to give the impression that he is a strong negotiator.

Blanchet was asked if it may have been a deliberate strategy to remind Canadians of Trump’s threat at a time where Liberal sources are claiming polls might be tighter than anticipated in key battlegrounds like in Quebec which could cost them their majority.

“I’m not their strategist, I’m not imagining wild conspiracies, but I can imagine that it serves them,” said Blanchet.

“Liberals are (juggling) between pretending that Mr. Carney has extinguished the threat (of Trump annexing Canada) and regularly resurrecting that threat because fear has been their main argument at the start of the Liberal campaign,” he added.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre opted to remain prudent in his comments about the call.

“I wasn’t there. But what’s clear is that we will stand up for our sovereignty, we will never be an American state, and we will focus on what we can control, which is to reverse the disastrous Liberal economic policies that Mark Carney advised Justin Trudeau to take.”

Carney said that Trump reiterating his threat of annexation is underscoring in his opinion just how important the choice facing Canadians on Monday.

“Who can stand up to President Trump, who can build Canada strong, who has the experience in order to do that? That’s the crucial choice that Canadians need to make.”

With files from the Associated Press. 

National Post
calevesque@postmedia.com

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The 21-year-old international student who was killed by a stray bullet last week at a bus stop in Hamilton, Ont., had “zero capability of avoiding” it, police said as they continued their investigation into the shooting.

Harsimrat Randhawa, a 21-year-old student from India, had recently been at a gym in the upper area of Hamilton, police said. She had taken public transit to get there, and had been waiting to cross the street by the bus stop near Upper James Street and South Bend Road when the shooting occurred.

Speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Acting Detective Sergeant Daryl Reid of the Hamilton Police Service said he had watched CCTV video captured at the time of the shooting.

“I know from watching the video that it happened very quickly,” he said. “Harsimrat had zero capability of avoiding what was about to unfold in front of her. She had just stepped off a city bus (and) was waiting to cross the street from my understanding, and everything unfolded so quickly she had no time at all to react.”

The incident occurred at a busy street corner, he said, and there may be witnesses who have not yet spoken to police.

“It was at 7:30 at night, there was a significant amount of traffic travelling up and down the roadway,” Reid said. “We know from watching that video that there were numerous cars that just passed through at that very moment.”

He added: “Many of those people have come forward, and I thank those people for coming forward to assist us, but we know there are more people out there that might have even the smallest piece of information that could help us, and putting all of those little pieces together is what we need to do, so we continue and encourage those people to come forward.”

Also on Wednesday, people gathered at Mohawk College, where Randhawa had been studying, to remember her.

“I’m truly at a loss for words. I don’t know what to say after the senseless tragedy,” said Katie Burrows, vice president of students and international, per the CBC .

“I’m sure that you all shared the heartbreak that I feel — a heartbreak for Harsimrat, who came to Canada to train for a career in helping others, and who I’m sure was looking forward to what her life would look like after she finished her program.”

Randhawa was going into her second year studying occupational physiotherapy at the college.

Micheline Lancia, one of her professors, remembered her as “a very kind soul” who was taken too soon.

“It’s very, very overwhelming to see a student who was doing so well, gentle, respectful, a little bit timid, she would have been a beautiful health-care worker. So, it’s a loss to everybody,” Lancia told the CBC.

“She was just very respectful of her presence. With health care, we are constantly handling patients, so you have to ask for permission and let them know that you will be touching them so they understand the process. And she was so respectful of that entire aspect of clinical skills and working with patients.”

Police said the shots were fired from a black Mercedes SUV targeting a white Hyundai Elantra. Reid said both vehicles had since been recovered .

“With the assistance of the Toronto Police Service, the white Hyundai Elantra was recovered on April 20th in a residential area in northwestern Toronto,” he said. “That vehicle has since been towed back to Hamilton for forensic examination.”

The following day, Hamilton police executed a search warrant at a residence in central Hamilton where they recovered the Mercedes.

“That vehicle has also been brought back to our police station for forensic examination,” Reid said. “Investigators have been narrowing down the pool of people who are associated to these two vehicles.”

He added: “We will leave no stone unturned until we find you. We encourage those involved in the April 17th incident to contact their lawyer and turn themselves into … police and speak to us.”

Reid said he did not believe the vehicles were stolen, but said the ongoing nature of the investigation prevented him from discussing their owners.

“There’s various things that we are going to do to try to figure out who had the vehicles at the time,” he said. “Knowing an owner is one thing but knowing who’s operating the vehicle and who’s shooting the gun at the time that it’s being used is a different part.”

Randhawas cousin, Balraj Singh, told the Canadian Press that her parents in India are devastated by the news.

“They will not be able to come here because they are in very bad condition now,” he said. “They are not even able to eat and sleep.”

Singh said Randhawa worked at a local McDonald’s, usually on weekends. He described her as a quiet and introverted person who was “brilliant” in her studies.

“She was absolutely happy in Canada,” he said, adding that her body would be repatriated to India this week.

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Neither the NDP nor the Green Party of Canada are expected to form government after April 28, and now it’s forecast that respective leaders Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May are in danger of losing their B.C. seats to a Liberal and a Conservative.

In Singh’s riding of Burnaby—South, poll aggregator 338Canada projects Liberal candidate Wade Wei Lin Chang to win with 38 per cent of the vote. Singh is forecast to finish third with 29 per cent behind the Conservatives’ James Yan, who clocks in at 32.

The margin of error for each projection is eight percentage points.

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When first elected for Burnaby South in 2019, Singh took almost 38 per cent of the vote. He increased it to 40 per cent in 2021, per Elections Canada.

At the time of prime minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation, 338Canada’s data gave him just over a 70 per cent chance of reclaiming his seat. In the following weeks, his odds fell and the likelihood of a Conservative win improved, only for both to be significantly overtaken by the Liberals once Mark Carney won the leadership.

If Thursday had been election day, Singh had a four per cent chance of being re-elected while Chang’s odds of turning the historically orange seat red were 81 per cent, per 338Canada.

Why Jagmeet Singh lost his cool during the French-language debate

Former NDP leader Thomas Mulcair said this week that Singh should surrender leadership if the party lose official party status.

Before the election was called, the party held 24 seats in the House, but polls since Trudeau’s departure show support dwindling much like Singh’s own fortunes. An election held on Thursday would yield just eight seats, 338Canada projects. Twelve seats are required to maintain status.

“He’s got to ensure he gets it,” Mulcair said during a CTV panel segment.

“I think he’s serene in his understanding of what it might mean for him, and I’m not getting any indication that he’s intent of fighting to stay on.”

Singh has been pointedly asked about his future during campaign stops.

In Winnipeg on Thursday morning , when it was put to him that his leadership is on the line, Singh replied, “What’s on the line in this election are working people and everyday families. That’s what I’m focused on.”

On Wednesday, during a campaign stop in Edmonton to pitch the party’s national rent control program, Singh was asked by reporters what kind of metric he’s looking for to justify staying on as leader.

“I’m never going to stop fighting for these people. I’m never going to back down,” he replied in an answer more focused on the rent issue of the day.

It was the same a day earlier in Vancouver , where he insisted his only focus is the remaining campaign ahead and not what happens after.

"We got five days left–I didn't hear any bell. Did you guys hear a bell? This fight's not over. We're here fighting every single day," says Jagmeet Singh when asked by a reporter how his party would fare if fewer NDP MPs are elected to the House of Commons.
#cdnpoli #elxn2025 pic.twitter.com/3iqfaapxg2

— CPAC (@CPAC_TV) April 23, 2025

Burnaby Central was established following the 2022 federal electoral boundaries redistribution, making it a new riding for 2025. And while it still consists of much of Singh’s original riding, it now encompasses parts of what were once Burnaby North—Seymour and New Westminster—Burnaby.

Since 2015, the latter has been held by New Democrat Peter Julian, who is now seeking re-election in New Westminster-Burnaby-Maillardville. 338Canada gives him a 49 per cent chance of winning, but he’s in a dog fight with the Liberals’ Jake Sawatzky (45 per cent).

Burnaby North—Seymour, meanwhile, has been a Liberal seat occupied by Terry Beech since 2015, but never without stiff NDP competition at the polls.

Beech wants to go back to Ottawa, and 338Canada gives him 99 per cent chance to win.

May not ready to retire

Meanwhile, across the Strait of Georgia in Saanich—Gulf Islands, May is trailing Conservative candidate Cathie Ounsted as the campaign winds down.

As of Thursday, the long-time Green leader and member of parliament is deadlocked at 34 per cent with her Tory opponent, with respective margins of error of eight and seven percentage points, per 338Canada . Liberal David Beckham is not far behind with a projected 24 per cent.

Ounsted has a 52 per cent chance of winning an election held on Thursday, according to 338Canada. May stands at 48.

“There are many things I want to accomplish before I decide I’m going to retire, and I want to keep working,” she told The Tyee last week.

The coastal riding has been May’s since 2011 when she became the first Green MP elected to the House by defeating Gary Lunn, who’d held the seat since 1997 for the Reform Party, the Canadian Alliance and then the Conservatives under prime minister Stephen Harper.

May went on to collect more than 54 per cent of the ballots in 2015, having won every poll in the riding, and just under 50 in 2019. Her margin of victory shrank in the 2021 election when she secured the win with only 37.6 per cent in the face of stiff competition from the Liberal and Conservative representatives.

In an interview with the Times Colonist this week, May noted that the riding has historically been some shade of Conservative, so the challenge doesn’t surprise her.

“They have a base here and they turn out their supporters. And right now, it’s a two-way race between the Conservative and me. So it doesn’t feel all that different.”

Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.

OTTAWA — Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre says he’ll do away with the Liberal electric vehicle mandate if he becomes prime minister after Monday’s election.

Poilievre said at a Thursday event at a Halifax car dealership that the government has no place in the garages of Canadians.

“Conservatives will put (Canadians) back in the drivers seat for a change. You will decide what’s good for you and your family,” Poilievre told supporters.

“Let me be clear, I have nothing against electric cars. If you want one, buy one. Free choice,” he added.

Under the Liberal plan, sales of gasoline and diesel-powered cars will be gradually phased out over the next decade, with a target of 100 per cent zero emission car sales by 2035.

Poilievre said that the time to act is now, with the plan starting with 2026 model-year vehicles.

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“Dealerships like this one across Canada have no idea how they’re going to meet these timelines,” said Poilievre.

Poilievre said that the Liberal mandate was effectively a $20,000 per car tax on gas and diesel-powered vehicles, which would go from the pockets of Canadian taxpayers to foreign automakers like Tesla.

Under the Liberal regulations , car companies may generate one credit for each $20,000 invested in clean technologies, and sell credits to other companies for the equivalent value.

The credits cannot be used after model year 2030.

The Liberal campaign told the National Post that Poilievre was being disingenuous by framing the credit-trading system as a direct tax on car buyers.

Brian Kingston, the head of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association was quick to applaud Poilievre’s announcement.

“Mandating EV sales when the auto industry is under attack from US tariffs is putting the puck in our own net. Scrapping the mandate is a smart policy and urgently needed,” wrote Kingston on social media.

Poilievre also said on Thursday that he’d keep billions in Liberal subsidies for domestic EV and battery plants, promising to honour all deals that have already been signed.

“(Conservatives) will continue to support… the commitments the government has made because we don’t believe in tearing up agreements, we believe in supporting Canadian jobs right here in Canada,” said Poilievre.

Poilievre has criticized the Liberal government at times for handing out large subsidies to corporations to support the domestic EV industry.

He was notably critical of the Liberal government’s use of subsidies to bring a Volkswagen EV battery manufacturing plant to St. Thomas, Ont., in 2023.

“This money belongs to Canadians. Not to a foreign corporation,” wrote Poilievre on social media at the time.

National Post
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Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.

Parliamentary bureau chief Stuart Thomson talks to reporter Christopher Nardi about why bettors might be putting money on the Conservative party, despite national polls showing the party several points behind the Liberals.

A recent Postmedia-Leger poll last week found that the Liberals are hanging onto the lead in the federal election with 43 per cent of support nationally, five points ahead of the Conservatives who are at 38 per cent support.

But the sports betting site FanDuel, which only operates in Ontario and carries odds for political events, says that 70 per cent of the bets placed on the winner of the federal election are on the Conservative party, with only 28 per cent of bettors wagering on the Liberals. The company says that more than 80 per cent of the bets on the Conservatives were placed after March 25, when the election was underway and the Liberals were pulling away as favourites.

Canadians go to the polls on April 28.

National Post

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Our website is the place for the latest breaking news, exclusive scoops, longreads and provocative commentary. Please bookmark nationalpost.com and sign up for our daily newsletter, Posted, here.

OTTAWA — With election day on Monday fast approaching, political parties are looking for their last chance to advertise their cause.

Luckily for them, they can do it on one of the biggest stages in Canada: the Stanley Cup playoffs. And it also comes at a moment when interest in hockey is peaking.

This year’s Stanley Cup playoffs features five out of the seven Canadian teams, which is the most since 2004. It’s also coming on the heels of the Four Nations Faceoff tournament, which saw heightened national attention due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric about Canada.

On top of that, last year’s Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals between the Edmonton Oilers and the Florida Panthers was the most-watched broadcast in Rogers Sportsnet’s history.

Now, political campaigns are taking advantage of this increased viewership.

“There are only two things that cause people to watch live television in numbers anymore,” said Mitch Heimpel, who was an advisor to former Conservative leader Erin O’Toole campaign and is an avid hockey-watcher. “One is big live news events and the other is live sports.”

“There were some echoes in these ads of the 2015 campaign when the Blue Jays were in the playoffs in October, where there were political ads laced throughout commercial breaks,” Heimpel continued.

The battle of Ontario, which pits the Ottawa Senators against the Toronto Maple Leafs, is particularly crucial for advertising campaigns, as Ontario is home to many of the key battleground ridings parties are looking to win.

The Conservatives have aimed ads at an older audience, as they try to pry those voters away from Liberal Leader Mark Carney. One of the ads features two older men golfing and discussing why they will be voting for the Conservatives. The video has also gone viral over social media (to an unknown extent because of its similarities to erectile dysfunction commercials), amassing over 4.6 million views on X.

We can’t afford fore more years.

Vote for Change. Vote Conservative. pic.twitter.com/i68ZbqwFgM

— Conservative Party (@CPC_HQ) April 19, 2025

“The two guys in that ad are not empathetic characters in a political ad for anybody under the age of 60,” Heimpel said.

The Liberal have notably excelled in the polls among older generations. According to Nanos’ election tracking , 53 per cent of people polled aged 55 and over preferred Carney’s Liberals, while only 33 per cent preferred the Conservatives.

“The polling has demonstrated that the boomers are generally more in play and susceptible to arguments about the United States and Trump’s impact on the economy,” Heimpel said. “Those boomer men who have typically been dialed-in Conservative voters are, for the first time in years, the subject of competition in this election.”

Additionally, the Conservatives have released an ad featuring former prime minister Stephen Harper directly endorsing Pierre Poilievre.

“The two men running to lead us both once worked for me, and my choice unequivocally is Pierre Poilievre,” Harper says in the ad.

“We’re talking about a group of voters that responds to authority very well,” Heimpel said. “They see Stephen Harper as a sign of solid fiscal management, and probably a saner time in the country’s politics.”

Heimpel says that this ad was especially meant for the Senators-Maple Leafs game.

“Those boomer men in Ontario probably voted for Stephen Harper three times, at least.”

The Liberals and NDP are also airing advertisements during the playoffs, though taking opposite approaches. The NDP has released ads about health care and other policies, while the Liberal ads have placed their leader front and centre.

“The Liberal ad is very Mark Carney-focused,” Heimpel said. “It tells you that as a brand, Carney is polling ahead of the party.”

The election advertising blackout occurs this Sunday, the day before the election. Every Canadian team is guaranteed to still be competing by Saturday, which means that the parties will have the opportunity to use the playoff ad breaks right until the end of the campaign period.

Heimpel says that he is interested to see if the parties create new promotional material before the blackout, even if this seems unlikely.

“The one thing that has changed though over the years is that the turnaround time (for producing ads) is shortening,” Heimpel said. “So we could see closing ads on Saturday night.”

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The human mind really can go blank during consciousness, according to a new review that challenges the assumption people experience a constant flow of thoughts when awake.

Instead, there are moments when the human mind seems empty of any content, and people seemingly aren’t thinking of anything at all.

“Mind blanking” is a newly explored and distinct mental state that isn’t the same as a lapse of attention or a wandering mind, the research team writes. People aren’t thinking about something else.

Instead, “our minds go ‘nowhere’ because they seem to lack content.”

Mind blanking is a common, daily life phenomenon linked to changes in states of arousal, the researchers report, and tends to occur towards the end of long and demanding attention tasks like exams, when people are sleep deprived or after an intense workout. Meaning that, “when the brain is in a high- or low-arousal state, a mind blank is more likely to occur.”

In experiments with healthy volunteers, the brain shows signs of “deactivation” and an increase in sleep-like slow brain waves during a reported mind blank. Heart rates and pupil sizes decrease. A part of the brain appears asleep, “which may represent a state of ‘local sleep’ rather than outright sleep,” the researchers write.

The experience has been described as a “lack of conscious awareness,” they noted, during which “the individual is not focally aware of any stimuli, either internal or external,” a particularly dangerous state if it occurs during high-risk, inopportune moments, like driving.

It may be the result of glitches in memory, language or attention. In experiments, people report feeling sleepier, and more sluggish, and they make more errors on attention tasks moments before their minds go “nowhere.”

While some people never report mind blanking, adults and children with ADHD (attention deficient hyperactivity disorder) report the experience more frequently than “neurotypical people,” the researchers said.

“Mind going blank” is also one of the core symptoms of generalized anxiety disorder. It’s also related to strokes, seizures, traumatic brain injuries and an “ultra-rare” sleep disorder (Kleine-Levin syndrome) that affects primarily teenage boys and that causes them to sleep up to 20 hours a day.

“The experience of a ‘blank mind’ is as intimate and direct as that of bearing thoughts,” the team of neuroscientists and philosophers write.

It’s not entirely clear what these “blanks” represent, they said. However, “We sought to better understand mind blanking by parsing through 80 relevant research articles — including some of our own in which we recorded participants’ brain activity when they were reporting that they were ‘thinking of nothing,'” Athena Demertzi, of the University of Liege, Belgium, said in a press release.

If scientists can better understand what’s happening in the brain, and if people could learn how to deliberately, instead of randomly, not think about anything, it could be an interesting strategy for dealing with anxiety, negative thoughts or other unpleasant emotions, lead author Thomas Andrillon, a cognitive neuroscientist at the Paris Brain Institute, said in an interview with National Post.

“It could represent a tool we could use to be more relaxed and improve our wellbeing.”

People assume Descartes’ Cogito, ergo sum goes both ways, Andrillon said: “‘I think, therefore I am’ and ‘I am, therefore I think.’

“We challenge the latter by showing that people can be conscious without thinking about something in particular.”

“Most of the time, by definition, mind blanking will go unnoticed, since there is no content associated with it,” Andrillon added. “We didn’t realize there was a blank.

“But sometimes, there are moments in your everyday life where we can introspect a bit about our own stream of thoughts and we can notice that there has been a gap,” like when people walk into a room and can’t quite remember how they got there, or why they’re even there. “It’s pretty frequent in everyday life,” Andrillon said.

There’s no “definitive guidance” on how to reliably measure mind blanking, the researchers write. But their review found that mind blanking is associated with specific changes in brain dynamics during “no-thinking” moments.

In his own experiments, Andrillon has tracked, via EEG and special MRI imaging, the brain activity of healthy volunteers performing different tasks.

When people are interrupted randomly and asked the contents of their thoughts — “what are you thinking?” — mind blanking is typically reported five to 20 per cent of the time.

The researchers have to rely on people’s subjective experience. “Obviously, we need to trust what they are telling us,” Andrillon said. “But it doesn’t look like these mind blanking reports are completely random — they have a specific behavioural and physiological signature” different from what they see when people report another mind state, like that they were thinking about something else, and not the task.

Brain rhythms tend to slow when people mind blank, similiar to the brain changes that occur just before the onset of sleep, again because of lower arousal. That suggests there are moments during the day “where parts of the brain start showing signs of sleeping, resulting in gaps and moments of mind blanking,” Andrillon said.

The research supports their hypothesis that mind blanking is the first step toward falling asleep, he said.

It also fits with his own ongoing research that found mind blanking more than tripled among healthy volunteers who were sleep deprived for 24 hours.

But the opposite can also be true: people who are very aroused, like after intense physical exercise, tend to report more blanking, suggesting that the phenomenon occurs “every time we go away from the sweet spot of optimal levels of arousal,” Andrillon said.

The experience of mind blanking comes in varying degrees, from a complete gap to a sensation of feeling time passing, he said. From a practical perspective, asking people how frequently they experience the phenomenon could be a helpful way for doctors to judge people’s level of daytime attention and vigilance, he said.

The review, “Where is my mind? A neurocognitive investigation of mind blanking,” is published this week in the Cell Press journal, Trends in Cognitive Sciences.

National Post  

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First Reading is a Canadian politics newsletter that throughout the 2025 election will be a daily digest of campaign goings-on, all curated by the National Post’s own Tristin Hopper. To get an early version sent directly to your inbox, sign up here.

TOP STORY

Although record-breaking turnout for advance voting is being interpreted by some as a point in the Conservatives’ favour, it could just be a reflection of the fact that Canadians like to vote early now.

At least, that was the warning contained in a Wednesday online post by Angelo Isidorou, executive director of the B.C. Conservative Party.

“The reality is that Canadian voters are normalizing to voting early,” he wrote, warning fellow conservatives against getting too excited about the “mirage” of advance voting.

Over four days of advance voting on the Easter weekend, a record 7.3 million Canadians cast their ballots. This represents a 25 per cent increase over the advance voting turnout of the 2021 election.

Voter turnout may end up being the singular factor that decides whether the 2025 election is a Liberal or Conservative victory.

The Conservatives are strongest among younger voters, a demographic that is notorious for voter apathy. In the 2021 election, just 47 per cent of voters under 24 cast a ballot, as compared to 75 per cent among voters over 65.

Although the Tories have spent the entire election struggling to keep up in national polls, it’s an entirely different story among young voters.  

One of the more dramatic illustrations of this trend was an Abacus Data survey from last week showing that voters under 30 were the strongest single age demographic for the Tories. Respondents aged 18 to 29 supported the Conservatives at a rate of 42 per cent, against just 35 per cent for the Liberals.

Among voters over 60, by contrast, the Liberals held a commanding 14-point lead (49 per cent Liberal, 34 per cent Conservative).  

Thus, if youth participation ticks upwards by just a few percentage points as compared to prior elections, it would represent a critical net gain for the Conservatives.

“Every percentage point of HIGHER voter turnout benefits the (Conservative Party),” reads a recent X post by conservative strategist Nick Kouvalis. The more young people who show up, the more it dilutes the ”potency of 65+ year old voters,” who are disproportionately in the tank for the Liberals.

Conservatives placing their faith in voter turnout could also take comfort in a lengthy track record of heightened voter participation correlating with the defeat of an incumbent government.  

That was certainly the case in 2015, when the Liberals first entered office on their own tide of youth votes: The 68.3 per cent turnout in that election was the highest since 1993.

The two Canadian elections that have witnessed the highest-ever rates of voter turnout (1958 and 1984) also happen to be the ones which saw record-breaking landslides for the Progressive Conservatives.

But Isidorou has some experience in being mislead by advance voting numbers, and is warning that they may not indicate a turnaround in voter turnout.  

B.C.’s October provincial election similarly saw record turnout to advance polls. On the first day of advance voting, there were 171,381 ballots cast, shattering the prior record of 126,491.

At the time, B.C. Conservatives interpreted the advance polling turnout as the early signs of a “blue wave.” “We thought we were looking at a historic result,” said Isidorou.

But the B.C. Conservatives ended up being wrong on two counts: The B.C. election resulted in a majority government for the B.C. NDP, and the final voter turnout wasn’t even all that high.

The election saw 58.5 per cent of registered voters cast a ballot. As recently as 2017, voter turnout had been as high as 61.2 per cent.

All that had really changed is that British Columbians were voting earlier, which Isidorou chalked up to “convenience” and “partisanship.” “Hyper partisanship has made it such that everyone knows where their vote is going from day one, so no point waiting,” he wrote.

Isidorou predicted that the 2025 election is still likely to yield high voter turnout, “but I caution extrapolating early voting into election day because we faced the identical mirage in BC.”

LET’S POLL

It looks like at least two party leaders are poised to lose their seat on Monday. Projections by the website 338Canada show that the B.C. riding of Burnaby South is now leaning Liberal, while Saanich-Gulf Islands is leaning Conservative. Those would be the ridings of NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh and Green Party Leader Elizabeth May, respectively.

POLICY CORNER

It probably got the least attention of anything in the Conservative platform, but at the bottom of the party’s promises in regards to public safety, they included a pledge to “defend women’s safety by repealing Commissioner’s Directive 100.” The directive refers to a Trudeau government order under which male offenders can transfer to women’s facilities by completing a form self-identifying as female. Prior to the directive, such transfers were only allowed if an inmate had undergone sex reassignment surgeries.

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Toronto Pearson Airport was the site of a fatal shooting on Thursday morning, after police responded to a call involving a dispute outside of Terminal 1.

The incident occurred near the departures area, where an SUV was parked. When police arrived, a security guard was already with a group of people, said Peel Regional Police Chief Nishan Duraiappah.

Three officers tried to de-escalate the situation. “However, abruptly, one of the individuals produced a firearm at our officers,” said Duraiappah.

“Two of the officers engaged with the individual. As a result, the subject was shot,” he said, adding that officers and paramedics tried to provide “life-saving remedies.” The man, 30, was pronounced dead at the scene.

Duraiappah said that the incident did not have to do with airport operations.

“Just to be clear that today’s incident…was not an attack on critical infrastructure,” he said, although he was aware that it would be “having an impact on hundreds of thousands of travellers.”

Duraiappah said that the Special Investigations Unit (SIU) was called. The province’s police watchdog is now investigating and looking into all of the evidence, including body camera footage from officers, surveillance footage from the airport and witness accounts.

It was not immediately known if the man who was shot had previously entered the airport. Duraiappah said the group was there for the purpose of travelling. He also said that the 911 call came from someone in the group.

“I can only assume that the nature of any dispute is some sort of crisis,” he said.

The entire incident took place outside of the airport.

In an emailed statement to National Post, SIU spokesperson Kristy Denette confirmed there had been “a police-involved shooting.” She said that the area should be cleared up by Thursday evening.

Speaking to reporters at the scene, Denette said that the man was located inside the vehicle , a Jeep Cherokee, when officers arrived. But when the man pulled out a gun, police said, he was outside of the vehicle. According to preliminary reports, the man did not discharge the weapon.

Denette described the man as “maybe agitated.”

She also said that the man had been with members of his family, The Canadian Press reported, and was “kind of in a mental distress.” It is not known whether the dispute was between the man and his family, or if he was having a personal crisis.

No police officers were injured, according to an SIU news release . Six investigators and three forensic investigators have been assigned to the case.

When asked about the officers involved, Duraiappah said they “are being cared for as best as they can.”

“I’m not going to speak on behalf of the officers, but without a doubt, this has got long-standing impact, not only on them, but their peers around them,” he said.

Although police officers and the SIU will continue to have a heavy presence at the airport, Duraiappah said there was no threat to public safety.

Witnesses told CTV News they heard what they believed to be “several gunshots outside Terminal 1 by pillar 14 and 15.”

Passengers and vehicles “are being rerouted to enter and exit through T1 arrivals,” the airport’s X account said in a post at 8:30 a.m. ET.

Flights continue to operate normally, the X account for Pearson said in a post around 10:30 a.m. ET . It urged travellers to “use the roadway to Terminal 1 Arrivals” because the road to the departures area remains closed. However, the airport said that the parking garage in Terminal 1 remains open.

“Passengers can also park at Terminal 3 and the Viscount Station Kiss and Fly lot and take the train to Terminal 1,” the post said.

Just after 7:30 a.m. ET, Ontario Provincial Police posted on X to say that roads were closed on “Highway 409 to Terminal 1 Departures” in Mississauga. “Please avoid the area,” the post said.

A bus route that goes to Pearson resumed its regular service near Kipling Station, the Toronto Transit Commission said in a post on X at 8:45 a.m. ET. Due to police activity, the 900 Airport Express took a temporary detour, utilizing Terminal 3.

Transportation Minister Chrystia Freeland posted about the incident on X on Thursday morning, saying she was following it closely.

“Airport operations are not affected, but passengers can expect delays at the Terminal,” she wrote. “Please check with your airline and (Toronto Pearson) for updates on your flights.”

I'm closely following the incident at Pearson this morning. Airport operations are not affected, but passengers can expect delays at the Terminal. Please check with your airline and @TorontoPearson for updates on your flights.

— Chrystia Freeland (@cafreeland) April 24, 2025

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Austrian businessman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has been named interim chairman of the World Economic Forum , replacing Klaus Schwab, who is under investigation for allegations of financial and ethical misconduct.

Brabeck-Letmathe, 80, is known for leadership in the global food and business sectors, spending his career at Nestlé . While there he was interviewed for a 2005 documentary, “ We Feed the World ,” and his comments about water use provoked considerable controversy.

Despite later clarifications, skepticism about Brabeck-Letmathe continues to linger, fitting within broader criticism levelled at attendees of the WEF, which meets annually in Davos, Switzerland. H igh-profile politicians, executives, financiers, and policymakers participate in the exclusive event, which focuses on global issues that affect a wide range of people.

Here’s what we know about the new head of the WEF.

What is Brabeck-Letmathe known for?

Brabeck-Letmathe spent his entire career at Nestlé , beginning in 1968 as a salesman in Austria, rising through the ranks, and moving to various leadership roles in Latin America. By the late 1980s, he was transferred to Nestlé’s headquarters in Switzerland as Senior Vice President, later becoming Executive Vice President in 1992 with responsibility for strategic business units, sales, marketing, and communications.

He was appointed CEO of Nestlé in 1997, later becoming Vice Chairman in 2001 and Chairman of the Board in 2005. Under his leadership, Nestlé expanded its global footprint , turning the company into a leading force in the food industry. He stepped down as CEO in 2008 but remained Chairman until 2017, when he became Chairman Emeritus.

Other than at Nestlé, Brabeck-Letmathe has held prominent positions such as vice chairman of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum, board memberships with Roche, Credit Suisse, L’Oréal, Exxon Mobil, and Salt Mobile SA, founder and chairman of the 2030 Water Resources Group, a public-private partnership within the World Bank.

What’s wrong with his eye in the photo circulating online?

A photo of Brabeck-Letmathe that seems to date back to 2014 has been circulating online. The photo depicts him as appearing to suffer from eye trouble.

The photo was used with a Reuters News Agency article , from the 2014 Nestlé annual general meeting, reporting that he was undergoing “ a curable illness and would need periodic medical treatment over the next six months.” Specific details were not provided by Brabeck-Letmathe or Nestlé.

Since his appointment as interim Chairman, it has been used in online criticisms of his reputation. (Notably, recent photos of him show no sign of any eye trouble, for example this one , which accompanies his WEF profile.)

Why is Brabeck-Letmathe controversial?

The controversy that enveloped him stems from remarks he made in the 2005 documentary “We Feed the World.” He described the idea that water is a public right as “extreme” and argued that water should be treated as a foodstuff with a market value. He suggested that putting a price on water would make people more conscious of its value, but also stated that specific measures should be taken to ensure access for those who cannot afford it.

These comments sparked backlash from activists, NGOs, and the public. Critics accused Brabeck-Letmathe and Nestlé of seeking to profit from a basic human necessity, and memes and negative commentary proliferated online. The controversy was further inflamed by Nestlé’s global bottled water operations , which were criticized for extracting water from communities and contributing to water scarcity.

Brabeck-Letmathe and Nestlé later clarified that he does believe access to water for drinking and sanitation is a human right, aligning with the United Nations’ stance. He emphasized that his comments were intended to address overconsumption in wealthy regions, not to deny basic access to water.

“To say that I have said water is not a human right is the biggest lie I have heard. I have been fighting for water as a human right for hydration and hygiene since the beginning but I have always said this is 1.5 per cent of the water that we are using,” he told a Guardian reporter in January 2014. 

However, these clarifications did little to quell skepticism among activists and some segments of the public, who remained wary of corporate involvement in water management .

In 2016, satirical publication The Beaverton took aim at Brabeck-Letmathe in its Aug. 31 edition, writing: “ In a statement from Nestlé head quarters, Chairman Peter Brabeck-Letmathe has accused the general public of discriminatory behaviour towards the corporation’s acts of pure  evil .” 

Does he have a Canadian connection?

Another notable controversy occurred when the University of Alberta awarded Brabeck-Letmathe an honorary degree in recognition of his work on water resource management. The decision prompted protests from students and activists, who argued that Nestlé’s water bottling practices and advocacy for water commodification were incompatible with the principles of public access to water.

The university defended its decision , claiming Brabeck-Letmathe’s work promoted water stewardship. However, administrators acknowledged significant backlash. Organizations like the Council of Canadians called for boycotts of Nestlé products, especially after incidents where Nestlé outbid communities for local water sources, further fuelling public outrage.

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Throughout the 2025 campaign, the Conservatives have frequently referred to what they call the “Lost Liberal Decade,” a reference to the fact that Canada has lagged dramatically on virtually every available indicator since the Liberals first came to power in 2015.

In sum, the economy is worse, crime is worse, public services are worse, affordability is worse — and there’s a whole galaxy of niche indicators, such as firearms incidents, refugee backlogs, even life expectancy, that are worse than they’ve ever been.

Below, a quick guide to the fact that, whatever you think of the Liberals, the last decade has really not been great for Canada.

Crime is up everywhere, and for everything

In the year the Liberals took office, 604 people were murdered across Canada. This was already a slight uptick from the year before, when murder rates hit a low not seen since the mid-1960s.

Just seven years later, in 2022, homicides would hit a high of 874. In raw numbers, that’s 270 more murdered Canadians.

But even when accounting for population growth, there are way more murders happening now than in 2015. The homicide rate in that year was 1.71 murders per 100,000 people. As of 2023, the most recent year for which Statistics Canada has released data, it was 1.94.

Put another way, if Canada had stuck to the homicide rates of 2015, we’d have had 94 fewer murders in 2023, 216 fewer murders in 2022, and about 150 fewer murders in 2021.

And it’s a similar story when it comes to virtually every other category of crime. Statistics Canada maintains a “crime severity index” that attempts to aggregate the raw amount of criminality each year in Canada. The index bottoms out just before the Liberals came to power in 2015, and has been on the upswing ever since .

Unfortunately, this is particularly true when it comes to violent crime. For one thing, the number of guns being turned on people each year in Canada has never been higher.

In 2015, for every 100,000 Canadians, there were 28.6 incidents of firearm-related violent crime. By 2022, the last full year for which data is available, this had surged to 36.7 incidents — nearly a 30-per-cent increase in just seven years.

In tandem with the spiking crime, prisons are increasingly empty

The Correctional Service of Canada publishes annual statistics on incarceration rates, and a noticeable trend begins to emerge starting in 2015: The prison population begins to plummet.

On the eve of the Liberals coming to power, the incarceration rate in the federal prison system was 53.6 prisoners per 100,000, a rate that had stayed relatively consistent throughout the early 2010s. Starting in 2015, it begins a steady plunge until reaching 40.1 out of 100,000.

The trend is even more dramatic in provincial and territorial prisons. The Liberals took charge of a country that had 85.5 prisoners per 100,000 in provincial jails. As of last count, this was down to 71.6, and has briefly dipped as low as 61.6.

These trends can partially be explained by population growth: As the rate of overall Canadians has surged, Canada’s incarcerated population has represented an ever-smaller share of the total.

But the scale of the decrease shows that crime has indeed gone up in tandem with Canada emptying its prisons. Some prisons, such as B.C.’s Okanagan Correctional Centre, are almost entirely empty . In 2023, it was only at 20 per cent capacity, housing 167 prisoners out of a total capacity of 800.

Asylum claims are absolutely through the roof

In 2015, there were 16,058 asylum claimants in Canada, foreign nationals who requested entry to the country as refugees and were waiting for their claims to be adjudicated.

As of January, Canada had 272,440 pending asylum claims, an increase of about 1,700 per cent. In just the month of January, Canada received almost as many new refugee claims as the entire backlog in 2015.

In that month alone, Canada took in 10,365 asylum seekers , an average of 14 per hour — and that was a slow month. The Immigration and Refugee Board reported that it was their lowest rate of new refugee claimants since the fall of 2023.

Every single day under the Liberals, housing prices have gotten $43 more unaffordable

One of the Liberals’ most-touted campaign pledges in 2015 was to make housing more affordable. “Liberals will invest in the middle class and those working hard to join it by making it easier to find an affordable place to call home,” read a press release from the time .

At the time, the average house in Canada cost about $430,000 . Adjusting to 2025 dollars, that’s $557,000.

As of February, the benchmark price was $713,700 . Over the last decade of Liberal governance, the average Canadian house has risen in price by about $16,000 per year. In other words, for every single day since the Liberals were elected in 2015, the average home has gotten $43 more unaffordable every 24 hours.

Health-care wait times are twice as bad

In 2015, it wasn’t a semi-regular occurrence for patients to die in the waiting rooms of Canadian hospitals. By 2023, a single hospital in Montreal yielded two such incidents over the course of a single weekend.

The Fraser Institute has been compiling reports of health-care wait times since the 1990s. The situation wasn’t great in 2015, but now it’s catastrophic.

In 2015, the median wait time for surgery was 18.3 weeks. By 2024, it was 30 weeks .

The result is thousands more Canadians dying due to an inability to obtain timely treatment. In 2015, Ontario counted 2,281 people who died while on a waiting list for medically necessary procedure. By 2023-24, that had risen to a total of 15,474 .

If the economy had stuck to 2015 trends, we’d all be $4,200 richer

For much of Canada’s history, the average Canadian worker earned about the same as the average U.S. worker. Canada started to fall behind in the 1980s, and the trend accelerated over the last 10 years.

The usually cited metric for worker productivity is per capita GDP — each Canadian’s average share of the total economy.

In 2015, Canadian per capita GDP was the equivalent of US$43,594.20 , according to the World Bank. This represented 76.4 per cent of American per capita GDP at the time.

Over the last 10 years, Canadian per capita GDP has stayed almost completely stagnant: It was the equivalent of US$44,468.70 as of 2023.

The Americans, however, have all gotten richer. The average Canadian’s share of GDP now represents just 67.5 per cent of the U.S. equivalent, as of 2023 numbers.

In 2023, University of Calgary economist Trevor Tombe calculated that if the Canadian economy had simply kept pace with the U.S., we’d all be earning an extra $5,500 per year.

Statistics Canada has found much the same. In a May 2024 report, the agency reported that if the Canadian economy had stuck to 2015 trends, the average Canadian would be $4,200 richer per year. That’s enough money to cancel out basically every Liberal subsidy, bursary and benefit of the last decade.

Every developed nation except us has gotten richer

Last month, Tombe also tallied up the last decade of per capita GDP growth of every country in the OECD, an organization that effectively comprises the world’s developed nations.

Of 42 countries, Canada was at rock bottom. The only country with worse GDP growth was the tiny European nation of Luxembourg.

The average Pole has seen their share of the national economy surge by 40.1 per cent over the past 10 years. The average Korean has seen it rise by 23.8 per cent, the average American by 18.2 per cent.

But in Canada, that figure was just 1.4 per cent. Not only has Canada’s economy been almost entirely stagnant since 2015, but it’s been stagnant even as the rest of the world gets richer.

Debt has increased $4.10 per person, per day, for 10 years

The Liberals took charge of a country with total sovereign debt of $612.3 billion . Adjusting to 2025 dollars, that’s about $800 billion.

As of the end of 2024, it’s now $1.4 trillion . In real dollars, that’s an extra $600 billion in sovereign debt. Put another way, that’s an extra $15,000 owing for every man, woman and child in Canada.

For every single day of Liberal governance since 2015, that works out to an average of $4.10 in new debt for every citizen. So, if you’re part of a family of five, your household’s share of the Liberal debt accumulation has worked out to $20.50 per day, every day, since 2015.

The eye-watering budget deficits incurred during the COVID-19 pandemic have played a part, but the Liberals have dramatically swelled government spending everywhere all at once.

As one example, the federal public service employed 257,034 people in 2015. By 2024, that was up to 367,772 — an increase of about 43 per cent.

Military recruitment has dropped off a cliff

It’s not news that Canada has a threadbare military. Armoured personnel carriers held together with bungee cords have been a reality since the 1990s.

But the Canadian Armed Forces of 2015 were exponentially more capable than they are now.

Recruitment has plummeted to historical lows, to the point where the military has dropped its medical standards to accept recruits with previously disqualifying conditions such as asthma or ADHD.

Just before the Liberals took power, internal estimates were that the military was about 900 members short of being at full strength. That shortage has now surged to 16,000 .

The recruitment crisis is so acute that up to half of the ships, aircraft and vehicles in Canadian military fleets cannot be used because there is no one around to fix them. As one example, as of last count, only 45.7 per cent of the Royal Canadian Navy fleet was considered “serviceable to meet training and readiness requirements in support of concurrent operations.”

Immigration intake has been wildly high

When the Liberals took power, the population of Canada was about 35.8 million. As of this writing, it’s 41.6 million. That’s 5.8 million new people over the course of 10 years, or 580,000 new Canadians per year.

For context, the population of all four Atlantic provinces is just 2.6 million. The population of Alberta is five million. The population of the entire Halifax metropolitan area is 530,000, not even a year’s worth of new immigrants.

Canada has been a high-immigration country throughout its history, but the rate of sustained population growth seen under the Liberals is unlike anything witnessed in the last 100 years.

It also helps to explain why shortages of everything from housing to doctors have become so acute, so quickly. In that same 10-year period, the number of housing starts recorded by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation was just 2.3 million, with more than half of that being taken up by apartment units.

Going all the way back to the 19 th century, Canada has typically had a population that is about 10 per cent of the United States’ — a ratio that has stayed constant, given that both countries have maintained similar growth rates.

That’s no longer the case. Since 2015, the U.S. has grown by about six per cent. Canada has grown by 16.2 per cent.

The birthrate has cratered

Canada now has one of the lowest birthrates on the planet. As of 2023, it had dropped to 1.26 children per woman, a rate matched only by four other “lowest low” countries: South Korea, Spain, Italy and Japan.

When the Liberals came to power in 2015, the birthrate was unsustainably low at 1.6 children per woman, but not catastrophically so.

As to why birthrates are plummeting more deeply in Canada than almost anywhere else, one answer seems to be affordability. Multiple surveys have revealed that young Canadians want to have more children , but they can’t afford to.

Life expectancy has gone down

These last figures may be the most stark — we are dying sooner.

When the Liberals took power, Canadian life expectancy at birth was 81.9 years. As of last count, in 2023, it was 81.5

That’s not a huge decline, but it’s basically the first time anything like this has happened. For at least the last 100 years, Canadian lifespans have been getting longer with each passing calendar year (except for the COVID pandemic years).

As to why the trend has ground to a halt during the last 10 years, one explanation is that tens of thousands of Canadians are dying from drug overdoses.

In the year the Liberals took power in 2015, 2,176 Canadians died of drug overdoses — an average of six per day. According to the most recent tally by Health Canada, 21 Canadians now die each day of drug overdoses.

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OTTAWA — Partisan divides trump regional ones among Canadians, according to a new survey from Leger Marketing and the Association of Canadian Studies.

Two-thirds of Canadians said they viewed relations between Liberal and Conservative supporters as either somewhat or very bad, with responses holding steady across all regions of the country.

This was significantly higher than the proportion who said the same of either Quebec-Canada or Alberta-Canada relations (33 per cent and 25 per cent, respectively).

The heat of the federal election campaign could be widening the partisan divide, said Jack Jedwab, the president and CEO of the Association for Canadian Studies.

“(People) are getting the impression from the coverage of the campaign that the parties are at each other’s throats,” said Jedwab.

Just under two in 10 respondents said that they thought Liberal-Conservative relations were either somewhat or very good.

This ranged from a low of 15 per cent in B.C. to a high of 21 per cent in Ontario.

Jedwab added that the “two-horse race” dynamic of this campaign, with the NDP, Bloc Québécois and Green Party struggling to gain any traction whatsoever, could be contributing to the polarization.

“This is the first time in a long time we’ve seen the top two parties get almost all of the media coverage, that could be contributing to the sort of ‘us-versus-them’ framing people are picking up on,” said Jedwab.

Respondents aged 55 and older were the most pessimistic about Liberal-Conservative relations, with seven in 10 saying they were bad or very bad. Sixty-three per cent of 35 to 54 year-olds and 59 per cent of those under 35 said the same.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre pinned Canada’s polarized political landscape on the Liberal government at a Thursday campaign stop in Halifax.

“Canadians have been divided by their government over the last decade… that’s the wrong way. The right way is to bring our people together,” said Poilievre.

Poilievre promised to stand up for all Canadians if he becomes prime minister after Monday’s election, not just the ones who voted Conservative.

Jedwab said that one encouraging trend is that there’s little evidence that so-called “culture wars” issues like guns, abortion and multiculturalism are driving the division, has been the case in the U.S. in recent years.

“There’s more overlap and far less polarization when it comes to the issues themselves,” said Jedwab.

The Liberal and Conservative campaigns both recently released big-spending platforms, each promising to add more than $100 billion to the national debt over the next four years.

The platforms also include similar tax cuts for working Canadians and home buyers, as well as similar supports for Canadian workers affected by U.S. tariffs.

Poilievre has said he won’t pass any laws restricting access to abortion if he becomes prime minister.

Jedwab said that this convergence isn’t surprising as the perceived uptick in ill-will between Liberals and Conservatives doesn’t change the fundamentals of campaign strategy in Canada.

“We’ve historically been governed from the centre-left or centre-right, not from ideological extremes,” said Jedwab.

He added that much of where Liberal-Conservative relations go from here will depend on whether the NDP and Bloc rebound from what’s almost certain to be a disappointing election result.

“People do tend to dig in their heels a bit more in a two-party system and start to see partisanship as more a part of their identity.”

The poll also found that Albertans and Quebecers, respectively, had a sunnier view of their provinces’ relations with the rest of Canada than respondents in other provinces.

Sixty-five per cent of Quebecers said Quebec-Canada relations were either somewhat or very good, versus 53 per cent of all respondents.

For Albertans, this spread was 56 per cent to 51 per cent.

Jedwab says that this disconnect stemmed, in part, from the national visibility of sovereigntist figures like Bloc Leader Yves-François Blanchet and Reform party founder Preston Manning.

“Both (Blanchet and Manning) like to give the impression they are speaking for most Albertans and Quebecers, respectively, when in effect they’re speaking for an important minority that are most aggrieved.”

The survey was taken between April 17 and 19, using a sample of 1,603 adults recruited from a Leger-founded panel. Online polls are not considered representative samples and thus don’t carry a margin of error. However, the poll document provides an estimated margin, for comparison purposes, of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

National Post
rmohamed@postmedia.com

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HAMILTON, ONT. — An incumbent New Democrat says he hopes his party will begin the process of “soul searching” from within about “who we are” once the federal election ends.

“In elections, results matter,” said Matthew Green, seated in his Hamilton campaign office.

“At a time when we could have been capturing the public’s attention about what a more caring, compelling future of the country was, we didn’t.”

The incumbent for Hamilton Centre said he’s not interested in assigning blame, and projects confidence that the New Democrats, which went into the campaign with 24 seats, will retain enough seats for party status, despite public opinion polls suggesting otherwise.

Those same surveys show Liberal Leader Mark Carney could be headed for a majority — a dramatic reversal of fortunes for a party that had spent the past 18-months trailing the Conservatives, dragged down by the unpopularity of former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

Carney’s arrival, which coincided with U.S. President Trump launching a trade war with Canada and aspiring to annex the country, has led to a Liberal resurgence, including across NDP-held ridings like Green’s in Hamilton Centre.

With mere days to go until the election on Monday, Green sat down for a wide-ranging interview with National Post about his own re-election bid, as well as what the day after the election may bring for New Democrats.

“What I’m hoping for is, you know, some soul searching within our party about who we are,” Green said.

For him, that means NDP members getting down to the work of defining the party’s values, principles and identity, separate from the question of who leads them.

Jagmeet Singh has been at the helm since 2017. This race marks his third federal election.

His first, in 2019, saw the party lose 15 seats.

Green said he supports Singh and knows him to be a man of integrity, which he said he demonstrated throughout the campaign. The “spark” he showed during last week’s English and French-language debates also earned him some respect, Green added.

At the same time, he said his message to New Democrats has been to stop waiting for some “superhero” to come and save them.

While the Conservatives poured millions into targeting Singh for entering into a supply-and-confidence agreement to prop up the minority Liberals, Green described staying in that deal as an “ethical decision,” both to prevent Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre from winning what then looked to be a super-majority by not triggering an election, as well as delivering national dental care, which the Liberals agreed to introduce as part of the New Democrats’ terms.

But getting this message across to voters is “impossible,” he said. “People don’t get it.”

Asked what risk New Democrats run, should they fail to do the inner work he believes is required post-election, Green paused for a moment.

“It feels like a funny question, given where we’re at now,” he said. “I’m not sure how much worse things can get for us in the moment, right?”

Green, who grew up in Hamilton, was first elected to the solidly NDP riding back in 2019. It has been orange since 2004, reflecting the city’s deep roots within the labour movement and steel manufacturing, earning it the reputation of a gritty city marked with factories, embodied by the nickname “Steeltown.”

But Hamilton is changing. More people from Toronto now call the city home, pushed out of the provincial capital by skyrocketing home prices, which are on the rise in Hamilton, too.

Building back the NDP’s connection to the working class is a must, said Green.

“The risk of not pivoting and soul-searching would, in my estimation, be absolutely the beginning to the end of the party. We cannot continue on this path, recognizing where we’re at right now,” he said.

“So no matter what happens on the 28th, we need to rebuild a membership-driven, internally democratic, grassroots coalition, labour-centred party for the working class in order to recapture people who we’ve lost to right-wing populism or to political estrangement, or the absolute despair of having to vote, hold their nose and vote Liberal, one more time.”

The latter is Green’s biggest challenge at the moment.

Polling aggregator 338canada.com suggests he is locked in a near dead-heat against Liberal rival Aslam Rana, who became the party’s candidate back in February.

Rana’s campaign declined an interview request.

Strategic voting has long been a problem for New Democrats, who are preparing to watch as their supporters and other progressives migrate to the Liberals in order to keep the Conservatives out.

Green blames the Liberals for stoking fear about wasting left-leaning votes, and he is not necessarily wrong.

Carney is spending his final days campaigning by asking voters who have supported other parties in the past to rally behind the Liberals, to deliver what he calls a “strong mandate” needed to face Trump.

Back in his campaign office, Green talks to a group of about 15 volunteers about to go door knocking. He walks them through what to say if voters want to talk about strategic voting.

It’s a conversation, he acknowledges afterwards, that he is having more often than he would like.

Green’s advice to volunteers is to tell voters that strategic voting only matters in races where Conservative support is strong, which is not the case in Hamilton Centre.

“We’re going to win this on the ground game,” he tells the group. He says their job today is to find supporters and speak to those who are still undecided.

He reminds them that it is a local campaign and to take their time at the doors.

For one young man assembled in the office, he sees another reason to hope.

“People believe in the Leafs. They can believe in us.”

National Post
staylor@postmedia.com

• In a two-horse race, the smaller parties face a 'catastrophic' election fate
• From cannolis to a collapsing NDP: Inside Poilievre's GTA battle as election day nears

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OTTAWA — As Canada’s two largest political parties spend the final few days of the federal election campaign fighting for power, Canada’s smaller parties enter the race’s final leg with arguably even more on the line — survival.

According to recent opinion polls , the Liberals and Conservatives are poised to dominate in this election to a degree not seen in almost 70 years.

Polls in recent weeks have been consistent and unequivocal in showing that the Liberals and Conservatives are expected to combine to easily win about 83 per cent of the votes cast. That’s a chunky increase over the 2021 federal election, when they combined for 66.3 per cent of all votes.

These gains have come at the expense of their smaller rivals — the New Democratic Party, the Bloc Québécois, the People’s Party of Canada, the Green Party and others. All of the parties, other than the big two, combined to win about one-third of the votes in the 2021 election, almost exactly double what they’re on course to win this time and almost identical to where they collectively were in the polls as recently as mid-January.

“It looks like it will be catastrophic,” André Lecours, a political science professor at the University of Ottawa, said about the struggling smaller parties’ fates in this election.

With less than a week before Canadians cast their ballots, the Liberals are leading the most recent polls with about 44 per cent of the vote, ahead of the Conservatives by about 5 percentage points. Barring a significant last-minute change, the two main parties should eclipse the 80 per cent mark. That hasn’t happened since 1958.

The danger for the small parties, beyond the short-term failure, is that a party needs to win at least 12 seats to be recognized as an official party in the House of Commons. If a party falls below that threshold, it isn’t allowed to ask questions in the House as often and is granted less money for research. There’s also a sense that smaller parties and their positions on issues just don’t matter as much.

While opinion polls are quite effective at measuring popular vote, anticipating the number of seats that a party might win is much more difficult. Of the parties other than the Liberals and Conservatives, the Bloc is seen as likely to just get over the 12-seat hurdle, based on the polls, while the NDP has only a small chance.

But the bigger question for these smaller parties is whether this election is likely to be a one-time blip, triggered by the tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, or a long-term restructuring of Canada’s political landscape. Specifically, could tariff-focussed Canadian voters, essentially kill off some of the smaller parties, leading Canada to return to what is effectively a two-party system, similar to the United States and many other countries?

Academics say that it’s unlikely that this election will lead to a long-term realignment where the Liberals and Conservatives dominate to this degree, or the way they used to.

Lecours says the circumstances of this election are “exceptional” in that Canadians are viewing the leadership candidates and their parties largely through a single issue: the U.S. tariffs.

That single, overriding issue isn’t likely to top the political agenda in future years, academics say, which means that Canadians will likely revert back to focusing on a variety of issues and supporting more parties and voices.

Sanjay Jeram, a political scientist at Simon Fraser University in Vancouver, said there are four main divisions that most influence Canadian voting patterns — region, language, culture and ideology — and that the importance of those differences will re-emerge in future elections.

“This is a point in time,” Jeram said, “but it won’t last.”

And following the 1958 election, a massive landslide by Prime Minister John Diefenbaker and his Conservatives, it didn’t then either.

In that election, the Tories won the largest majority government in Canadian history and the second-highest percentage (53.7 per cent) of the popular vote. (Only Conservative Prime Minister Robert Borden’s 1917 win, with almost 57 per cent of the vote, was greater).

Although the Liberals were crushed in that election with just 33.8 per cent of the votes, the two main parties combined to win a historic 87.5 of all ballots cast. It was the third consecutive election that those two parties had combined to top 80 per cent.

But the two-party dominance couldn’t maintain that level, just as academics expect this time around too.

In the next federal election, 1962, the combined Liberal-Conservative vote fell to 74.7 per cent of the popular vote, as challengers on both the left and right of the two main parties made gains.

The NDP, in its first election after morphing from the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF), jumped to 13.4 per cent of the vote, up from the CCF’s 9.5 per cent in 1958. Social Credit, seen as more conservative than the Conservatives, jumped to 11.7 per cent of the popular vote, up from 2.6 per cent in 1958.

The two main parties’ combined totals remained in a range between 71.9 per cent (1965) and 78.6 per cent (1974) for the next 35 years.

But in 1993, there was a major restructuring on the Canadian political landscape with the emergence of the Reform and Bloc Quebecois parties. The Progressive Conservatives placed third in the popular vote (16 per cent) but split the right-of-centre vote with Reform and won only two seats. Efforts to unite the two right-of-centre parties began shortly thereafter, eventually leading to the 2003 formation of the Conservative Party of Canada.

So what would it mean for Canada if the Liberals and Conservatives dominated the electoral landscape in the coming years, as they did in the 1950s?

Lecours says the Liberals would be the big winners because it would mean a consolidation of the progressive vote in both English and French-speaking Canada. The Conservatives, by contrast, are challenged on the right only by the People’s Party of Canada, which won 4.9 per cent of the vote in the 2021 election but are tracking at about one per cent this time.

National Post

• NDP incumbent says party needs 'soul searching' after election
• As polls tighten in Quebec, the Bloc sees an opportunity to play 'offence'

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VICTORIA — “Friends, pinkos and separatists, lend me your votes.”

Mark Carney wasn’t quite as churlish as to insult his left-of-centre rivals but his pitch from the upper deck of Victoria’s Empress Hotel, overlooking the harbour, was to appeal to progressive voters to “vote with me, for positive reasons, regardless of which party you supported in the past.”

“We need to come together to fight Donald Trump together,” he said.

The only certainty in politics is that nothing is certain. But all the available evidence suggests that the Liberals are on course for an election victory on Monday.

Everything is coming up roses for Carney right now. On Wednesday, Ontario’s Progressive Conservative government issued an open letter saying that the current child-care deal with the federal government comes to an end next April and the province wants Ottawa to step up with “stable and adequate funding” to extend the program. Premier Doug Ford might just as well have stuck a “Vote Carney” sign on his front lawn. The Liberal leader’s response was unequivocal in Victoria. “No problem. I’m absolutely standing behind $10-a-day child care in Canada.”

If victory looks likely, what’s less clear is whether it would be a majority or minority government.

This is a high-wire act for Carney. He has to appear confident, but he can’t appear too confident; to give the impression of momentum but not too much momentum; to veer leftward but not so far left that he alienates centrist voters.

The Liberal leader professed common cause with the NDP, but make no mistake, he is back in Victoria because he wants to bury, not praise, the New Democrats, who hold all but one of the seven seats on Vancouver Island.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has attacked the $28 billion in “undefined spending cuts” he says are in the Liberal platform. But until now, Carney seems not to have mentioned the New Democrats once during this whole campaign.

He was finally persuaded to, in answer to a reporter’s question, say that when he thinks of what the NDP calls “progressive policies,” he thinks of “the policies and institutions that are at the heart of this country.”

The collapse of the NDP vote means that ridings they won comfortably in 2021 are now in play, the Liberals say, including that of veteran B.C. MP Peter Julian in New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville.

There are no rumblings of adrift New Democrats “coming home” back to the party, despite Singh’s appeal to do so.

The story in Quebec is less clear cut. In 2021, the Liberals won 33 seats and the Bloc 32. President Donald Trump’s threats initially drove many traditional Bloc supporters into the arms of the Liberals, conscious that Quebec culture would be swamped if Trump’s most expansive ambitions were fulfilled. The 338Canada.com poll aggregator currently projects 43 Liberal seats, 22 Bloc and 12 Conservatives in Quebec.

But as Trump’s threats have receded, and Carney’s victory has grown more assured, there are signs that Bloc supporters are less ardent about sticking with the Liberals.

As my colleague Antoine Trépanier noted Wednesday , the Liberal majority runs through Quebec but party sources suggest the prospect is slipping away.

BQ Leader Yves-François Blanchet is telling Quebecers that Carney’s victory is a certainty and that the Bloc is now “on the offence.”

Marc Miller, the former Liberal immigration minister who is running again in Montreal, said that he is not seeing a Bloc rebound. “If it’s happening, it’s recent and they (those Bloc voters) probably weren’t coming over anyway,” he said.

When asked why he needs a majority, Carney said the country is in the process of joining together. “It is important we have a strong government to face President Trump,” he said.

Quebec will be the kingmaker, and its voters will likely decide precisely how strong that government is.

jivison@criffel.ca
Twitter.com/IvisonJ

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During a Tuesday press conference to unveil the Conservative election platform, Pierre Poilievre took a departure from the topic du jour, analyzing a report from an obscure government department that warned of the potential that many Canadians may “face the very real possibility of downward social mobility” by 2040.

“The report paints a terrifying picture of a spiral of economic depression and cost inflation,” Poilievre said.

Written by Policy Horizons, the report suggests various hypothetical situations Canada could face in 2040, including a world where young Canadians are moving abroad, and some may even turn to foraging and hunting to meet basic food needs.

“Thinking about future scenarios helps decision-makers understand some of the forces already influencing their policy environment,” the report says. “It can also help them test the future readiness of assumptions built into today’s policies and programs. Finally, it helps identify opportunities to take decisions today that may benefit Canada in the future.”

Here’s what you need to know about the government department and its report.

What is Policy Horizons?

It is a government office that was founded in 1996 that does strategic foresight .  In a statement, Maja Stefanovska, a spokesperson with Employment and Social Development Canada, said that Policy Horizons analyzes the “emerging policy landscape, the challenges that lie ahead, the opportunities opening up,” in addition to “building foresight literacy and capacity in the public service,”

These sort of society-oriented wargames explore the ways the future could unfold, no matter how outlandish, so as to inform current government priorities. Strategic foresight is a common practice in the business world, and Policy Horizons says it follows the methodologies of other national governments and the private sector.

Are these predictions?

Not really. The report makes several suggestions about what the future could hold. In the past, Policy Horizons has gamed out the potential for various scenarios , including the outbreak of world war, an information realm dominated by misinformation and antibiotic resistance.

Stefanovska said the report is “not a forecast nor a commentary on current or future policies.”

Rather, it concocts hypothetical futures as an exercise to help government prepare for all possible futures.

What does it say about work in the hypothetical future?

In that world, post-secondary education is no longer a path towards social mobility; rather, it is too expensive for anyone but the rich and programs on offer are too inflexible to prepare students for the demands of work. Instead of being a path to a better job, post-secondary education has become a social marker than one has joined the “elite.” The advances of artificial intelligence also limit the labour market, especially in creative fields, meaning people need to rely on gig work to pay the bills.

What does it say about housing?

If this scenario comes to pass, Canadians are unable to afford housing. Rather, intergenerational mortgages have become the norm and several generations of family live together under one roof, or people get mortgages with friends, while landlords who oppose rent freezes or increased housing supply scoop up large portions of the housing market.

“Inequality between those who rent and those who own has become a key driver of social, economic, and political conflict,” the report says.

Compared to some of the situation analysis Policy Horizons has done in the past — such as considering a future in which the United States is embroiled in a civil war — this one seems altogether too likely.

Housing costs are one of the defining issues of the 2025 election. Ipsos polling from April 2024 found that 80 per cent of Canadians already believe that owning a home is only for the wealthy and 72 per cent say they have given up on ever owning a home. Despite this, though, home ownership has been reasonably stable in Canada: in 2021, 66.5 per cent of Canadians owned their home; in 2011, 69 per cent did — but that was a record high, according to Statistics Canada.

What about wealth?

The hypothetical Canada of 2040 is a society that “increasingly resembles an aristocracy,” and one of the only ways to get ahead will be through inheritance. Interestingly, Canada is expected to see $1 trillion in intergenerational wealth passed along over the next few years, in the largest wealth transfer in history, as Baby Boomers and the silent generation pass their wealth on to millennials and Gen X.

This society also sees less interaction between socio-economic classes; it predicts dating apps that select via income, for example. This has already happened, to some extent, with exclusive dating apps such as Raya and the League, compared to more egalitarian apps such as Tinder or Hinge (although on Hinge, a person can select on the basis of education and political views.)

“Social relations no longer offer pathways to connections or opportunities that enable upward mobility,” the report says.

What does it say about the economy?

In short, it suggests that a hypothetical Canada in 2040 could have a less predictable economy, with wealth highly concentrated, an upwards spiral of housing costs and a depressed consumer economy, as people spend less money.

It also suggests that migrants may choose countries other than Canada and that younger Canadians may move abroad. This could imperil social services that older Canadians rely upon.

Does it have any positives?

That depends on your definition of positives.

It predicts the growth of trade unions as a way to resist the impoverishment of Canadian workers. Union membership has already dropped in Canada , from a high of 37.6 per cent in 1981 to a low of 30.4 per cent in 2023.

However, while some may see increased union membership as a good thing, the report warns, “Job actions and strikes may disrupt economic development.”

With costs rising and incomes decreasing, Canadians may also turn to alternative structures to get the support they need. For example, they may turn to co-operatives for housing, food, childcare, and health care. While this may meet basic needs and decrease the demands on public services, it could also pose challenges for “market-based businesses.”

“People could rethink what ‘prosperity’ means, or ‘fulfilment.’ They may reject conspicuous consumption. They may focus on policies that promote human flourishing. This could include health care, housing, the environment, and education for its own sake,” the report says.

What else?

The report suggests various alternative methods of exchanging goods and services and acquiring goods. It suggests that trading goods and services could reduce tax revenues or impair consumer safety. It also says foraging and hunting and small-scale agriculture could become more common.

As it stands, about three per cent of Canadian households hunt , nine per cent have gone fishing and, while the report does not specify what it means by small-scale agriculture, 61 per cent of Canadian households already grow fruit , vegetables, herbs or flowers for themselves.

All of this could mean that Canadians blame others, or various systems, for their problems. The report warns that Canadians could blame immigrants or the rich or demand tighter regulations from government.

“They may attack policies believed to favour older cohorts, who benefited from the era of social mobility,” the report says. “In extreme cases, people could reject the state’s legitimacy, leading to higher rates of tax evasion or other forms of civil disobedience.”

Does the report say this is good? Is this also the view of the government?

No to both. The authors write that the described scenario of stunted social mobility is “neither desired nor preferred,” but that it is plausible.

A disclaimer on the report says: “The content of this document does not necessarily represent the views of the Government of Canada, or participating departments and agencies.”

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A Nova Scotia woman serving a life sentence for strangling her own daughter to death could soon be applying for unescorted temporary absences from prison.

In a recent decision granting Penny Patricia Boudreau escorted temporary absences, the Parole Board of Canada notes “it would appear” that Correctional Service Canada “is looking towards June 2025 as a possible hearing date for a more liberal release, such as (unescorted temporary absences). Naturally, any movement in that regard will invite media scrutiny and a community response. That scrutiny is inevitable.”

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Boudreau murdered her 12-year-old daughter Karissa on Jan. 27, 2008, later claiming it was to save her relationship with her boyfriend. The following year, Boudreau pleaded guilty to second-degree murder. A judge sentenced her to life in prison with no chance of parole for 20 years.

“Holding a position of trust, you strangled the young victim and disposed of the body in the snow (beside the LaHave River) with hopes it would not be discovered,” said her most recent parole decision, released Wednesday.

“Moreover, you concocted a story that she might have been abducted and made public pleas for her return. An exhaustive police investigation involving undercover agents led to your arrest. It was your position that your decisions were taken to save your intimate relationship with your partner.”

In making its recent decision, dated March 28, the parole board considered “numerous victim impact statements” and “a host of letters sent directly to the board. Collectively, they speak to a deep sense of loss and grief, be it family members, friends and/or the community at large. That grief and opposition to your release continues to this day.”

Boudreau, now 51, has “completed numerous” escorted temporary absences since they were first approved for her in 2018.

“Completion of some was interrupted due to pandemic restrictions as well as the heightened level of media interest and push back from certain communities,” said her parole decision.

“Those most recently approved from 2024 … are soon to expire.”

In this most recent decision, the parole board handed Boudreau 18 more escorted temporary absences “to participate in church services and/or church related activities, including but not limited to special community events, bible study, meetings with the pastor and/or congregation, for up to six hours each including travel time.”

It also granted her four escorted absences of up to seven hours each to see family.

“One of your parents has ceased contact with you due to the negative media attention surrounding your current offence,” said the decision.

A psychological risk assessment completed last fall noted her “overall risk within the community on unescorted temporary absences and/or day parole was generally low while (Boudreau’s) global risk for future recidivism, whether violent or general, was estimated in the very low range.”

Boudreau, a minimum-security offender, visited a halfway house last December for a tour.

“Over the past several years, ongoing (escorted temporary absences) have facilitated interaction with members of the public through a church environment and to visit the home of a close personal support,” said her parole decision. “That support continues today. There have been no security concerns.”

Boudreau doesn’t pose an “undue risk to society,” said the parole decision.

“Despite recent threats made to your personal safety, which police investigated, (Correctional Service Canada) believes your (escorted temporary absences) can be effectively managed, and any media attention and/or safety risks will be closely monitored prior to the release on these (escorted temporary absences) and appropriate and necessary measures will be taken if deemed necessary.”

The parole board decision, which came out of Atlantic Canada, doesn’t indicate where Boudreau is serving her sentence.

“Police in the church’s community remain supportive while police in the community of your other proposed (escorted temporary absences) continue to strongly oppose any type of release,” said the decision. “It is their opinion that you were issued a life sentence with no parole before 20 years served which needs to be followed.”

What began as a simple video has become a boon for Nanaimo, a city on Vancouver Island with a population of 106,000.

Tod Maffin, a digital marketer, journalist and social media influencer living in Nanaimo, never imagined his TikTok video would spark a friendly American invasion of the city.

“I was bored on a Friday night waiting for an Xbox game to install, and so I made a stupid little video that said, ‘Hey, if you Americans who support Canada really want to put money where your mouth is, come on up to Canada, come to my hometown, and spend your money,’” said Maffin.

That post marked the beginning of “Nanaimo Infusion,” a weekend from April 25 to 27, where Americans are invited to visit.

Maffin set up a forum asking people to indicate if they were planning to attend. More than 2,000 people registered. The response was overwhelming. “I’m not an event planner,” Maffin said.

He eventually took the forum down and opened a Discord channel where Americans could confirm their attendance after booking accommodations. As of writing, more than 175 people have confirmed that they booked a trip.

One person attending is Andrew Kantor. He and his wife are coming from New York. Kantor first heard about “Nanaimo Infusion” through CKLR-FM, a radio station in Courtenay, B.C., that he started listening to because he was tired of American news. After watching Maffin’s TikTok, he joined the Discord and made new friends. He and his wife decided to visit Nanaimo to meet those friends and show solidarity with Canadians.

“We really just want to be part of something that’s showing Canada that most Americans are on their side. Most Americans don’t like what’s going on. And this is one way we can do a little bit to help,” said Kantor.

As part of the “Nanaimo Infusion” weekend, Maffin, whose birthday falls on April 26, worked with the city to organize a “family photo event” at 10 a.m. PT that day in Maffeo Sutton Park. Visitors are invited to gather for a group photo, and Nanaimo’s mayor, Leonard Krog, is expected to be in attendance.

Many local businesses are embracing the weekend’s excitement by organizing a variety of activities. These include a welcome gathering for queer American visitors at White Sails Brewery on April 25 and a nanaimo bar-making demo at Island-ish Lifestyle Boutique on April 26, with several other events planned throughout the weekend.

“The community has turned up for this,” Maffin said.

Mayor Krog is optimistic about the economic benefits this influx of tourists could bring. “If a few hundred people show up, it will have several hundred thousand dollars of economic impact in a very positive way at a time of economic uncertainty and concern,” he said. “And of course, the Americans will discover, if they haven’t before, that their dollar goes a lot further in Canada than it does back home. This will encourage longer-term tourism as well.”

Hotels might be in short supply for the weekend, but Krog remains confident the region can handle the influx of visitors. “I think we’ll be able to accommodate those who will choose to come.”

The mayor also sees the weekend as an opportunity to strengthen the bond between Canadians and Americans. “They will discover that their best friends are north of the border, and they would be very wise to work on that friendship instead of allowing, as I say, the mad king in the White House to destroy that long-standing relationship.”

It’s a message that resonates with many Americans planning to make the trip.

“I honestly think most Americans love Canada. You are our best friend. You’ve been our best friend for centuries, and this is awful, and we hate it. And we’re trying to show a little solidarity,” said Kantor.

Maffin believes the “Nanaimo Infusion” is already a success, even though the weekend hasn’t officially begun. “I genuinely believe that this has put Vancouver Island on the radar of people that had no idea it existed before.”

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