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The number of Canadian firms now operating on the assumption that a recession will occur over the next year has risen, according to surveys released by the Bank of Canada on Monday.

Around 32 per cent of respondents in the Business Outlook Survey (BOS) believe an economic downturn will occur in the coming year, up from 15 per cent over the previous two quarters. The growing pessimism is also reflected in a survey of Canadian consumers, where 67 per cent are expecting a recession in the coming year, up from 47 per cent in the last quarter.

Data from the BOS is based on interviews conducted between Feb. 6 and Feb. 26, which is before U.S. President Donald Trump announced 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum in mid-March and 25 per cent tariffs on autos on March 26.

Businesses surveyed, particularly those in the export sector, outlined three main concerns including the ongoing trade conflict with the United States, the political situations in both Canada and the U.S. and the risks to consumer spending. Around 40 per cent of firms expect lower sales growth if tariffs are implemented.

Trade uncertainty has also translated into a pullback in investment with 22 per cent of firms now saying the uncertainty has put a hold on   their plans. Hiring has also been paused   due to the uncertainty, with just 32 per cent of firms planning to hire more workers over the next year. The last time the portion of firms that planned to hire was this low was the fourth quarter of 2015.

Tariffs have also put upward pressure on price expectations for Canadian businesses. The BOS highlights a number of other reasons why price expectations have risen, including the depreciation of the Canadian dollar , the pivot away from U.S. suppliers, tariffs from China and suppliers proactively raising prices in anticipation of future tariffs.

Nearly 45 per cent of firms expect to partially or fully pass through their costs to consumers, while 31 per cent are not expecting their input prices to be affected by tariffs. Around 17 per cent of businesses do not plan to pass on their costs, while four per cent remain unsure about the extent of the pass-through.

The survey also asked about the inflation outlook , which has businesses expecting the consumer price index to be 3.6 per cent in the year ahead.

According to the bank’s Consumer Expectations Survey, trade uncertainty is raising concerns over job security and financial health. This translates into a larger portion of consumers holding back on purchase plans this quarter.

• Bank of Canada expected to make deeper rate cuts
• Canada's slumping growth signals recession in second quarter
• Bank of Canada will work to minimize risk in trade war

“I’m definitely spending less and saving more because the future is so uncertain,” said one respondent. “I like to be ahead of what might happen in the economy for example, my job security might get worse.”

• Email: jgowling@postmedia.com

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'We can’t control President Trump, but we’re in full control of the kind of future we build for ourselves' said Ford

Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay, talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about why the United States dollar is going down and the Canadian dollar is going up.

• Trump's trade war stalls manufacturing investment
• How Canada could win a 'no tariffs' deal
• These investments are 'immune' to Trump's trade war

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North American stick exchanges dipped on Monday as did global markets, making for a third straight day of instability.

Market forecasts are being slashed as the selloff sparked by U.S. President Donald Trump ‘s tariff onslaught shows no signs of abating.

After Trump’s “Liberation Day” last week, the S&P 500 suffered its worst two-day drop since March 2020, wiping out over US$5 trillion in value and pushing the Nasdaq 100 into a bear market.

Stocks plunged again Monday with the S&P 500 down 3.8 per cent in early trading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1,200 points, and the Nasdaq composite was 4 per cent lower.

If the decline holds it will be the largest three-day fall in the index since the Global Financial Crisis , pushing it into bear market territory, said analysts.

“This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences,” Bill Gross, the former chief investment officer of Pacific Investment Management Co., told Bloomberg last week.

“Investors should not try to ‘catch a falling knife.'”

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers echoed the sentiment Sunday.

“This was the fourth largest two day move since the second World War,” he wrote in a post on X. “The other three were the 1987 crash, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID pandemic. A drop of this magnitude signals that there’s likely to be trouble ahead, and people ought to just be very cautious.”

At this point few are recommending “buying the dip.”  Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett said investors should “short” risk assets until Trump moves away from tariffs on to tax cuts, Bloomberg reports. If there is a recession, investors should wait until the S&P 500 sinks to between 4,800 and 5,000 point to jump back into risk. The index closed at 5,074.08 Friday.

Analysts say what will be crucial in the next few days is whether the White House tries to find “an elegant off-ramp or doubles down.”

Saturday the United States’ 10 per cent baseline tariffs on all countries went into effect and on Wednesday those are set to rise as the higher reciprocal tariffs take hold. China’s 34 per cent retaliatory tariffs are due on Thursday.

Over the weekend Trump and his administration showed few signs of backing down. The president said on Air Force One: “Forget markets for a second — we have all the advantages,” and “sometimes you have to take medicine to fix something.”

Still many remain hopeful that the man known for “The Art of the Deal” will find a way to ease the pressure. More than 50 countries called the administration over the weekend seeking talks.

Capital Economics expects the president to quickly announce a few deals that will reduce the tariffs on the hardest hit countries, followed by more agreements in the months to come.

“We suspect that even the pugnacious Trump must understand he’s gone too far this time,” said Paul Ashworth, Capital’s chief North American economist.

“Once it becomes clear that he is willing to accept relatively minor concessions in exchange for scaling back those tariffs, equities should rebound.”

The alternative is a president who doubles down, carrying out his threats to impose even stiffer tariffs on countries that retaliate with penalties of their own.

If that happens tanking stock markets will soon be followed by a collapse in household and business confidence, said Ashworth, pulling the U.S. economy into recession within a few months.

“A U.S. Administration that doubles down will have immense global implications for 2025 and the years and decades ahead,” wrote Jim Reid, global head of macro and thematic research at Deutsche Bank.

“At the moment there are few signs they are backing down which will likely signal more market turmoil ahead. Rarely if ever have the next few days been so important.”

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Canada’s labour market shed the most jobs in more than three years in March, and at least one economist says the weaker-than-expected showing could be signalling the start of a recession.

The economy lost 33,000 jobs, when economists had been expecting it to gain 10,000. It was the first decline in eight months, and the largest since January 2022, though gains in February had dwindled to just 1,100.

“Overall, the deterioration of the labour market may be signalling the start of a possible recession in Canada due to the U.S. tariffs,” said Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud.

“As seen in recent weeks, the extreme uncertainty has had a significant negative impact on business sentiment, lowering hiring intentions.”

 

• Bank of Canada business and consumer outlook surveys
• Today’s Data: United States consumer credit

• Keep calm and heed Warren Buffett — history shows market meltdowns are short-lived
• As leaders pledge tax cuts on Canadian vehicles, here are the eight cars that might qualify
• Bank of Canada April rate cut still in play as job market weakens, economists say

A Financial Post reader asks FP Answers for advice for his two gen-z daughters who are building their savings in tax-free savings accounts (TFSAs). Is a TFSA the right vehicle and what should they put in it? Financial planner Andrew Dobson says TFSAs can great choice for young people, as they offer flexibility, ease of use and they maximize returns. But there may be an even better choice that could also be used in tandem with the TFSAs. Find out more 

Are you worried about having enough for retirement? Do you need to adjust your portfolio? Are you starting out or making a change and wondering how to build wealth? Are you trying to make ends meet? Drop us a line at wealth@postmedia.com with your contact info and the gist of your problem and we’ll find some experts to help you out while writing a Family Finance story about it (we’ll keep your name out of it, of course). McLister on mortgages

Want to learn more about mortgages? Mortgage strategist Robert McLister’s Financial Post column can help navigate the complex sector, from the latest trends to financing opportunities you won’t want to miss. Plus check his mortgage rate page for Canada’s lowest national mortgage rates, updated daily.

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Visit the Financial Post’s YouTube channel for interviews with Canada’s leading experts in business, economics, housing, the energy sector and more.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Pamela Heaven with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at  posthaste@postmedia.com .

• The worst may be over for the Canadian dollar
• How Canadians might be the best weapon against Trump's tariffs

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Sunday said foreign governments would have to pay "a lot of money" to lift sweeping tariffs that he characterized as "medicine," as financial markets indicated another week of steep losses could be in store.

As the world and markets wake to the full impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s global “reciprocal” tariffs , FP Video sits down with the CEOs of Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters and Starlight Capital, plus an associate professor from the Sprott School of Business, to discuss how investors , manufacturers and Canada can make the most out of the trade war turmoil.

Trump’s trade war stalls manufacturing investment

Dennis Darby, chief executive of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters, talks about how manufacturers are coping in the uncertainty around Trump’s tariffs and how renegotiating CUSMA is the solution.

These investments are ‘immune’ to tariff turmoil

Dennis Mitchell, chief executive and chief investment officer at Starlight Capital, talks about what strategies are best for investors amid trade uncertainty and volatile markets.

How Canada could win a ‘no tariffs’ deal

Ian Lee, associate professor at Sprott School of Business, Carleton University, talks about how the Great Depression is ‘a great case study’ when it comes to understanding current trade tensions.

• Auto tariffs and the federal election: FP video
• These investments are 'immune' to Trump's trade war
• How Canada could win a 'no tariffs' deal

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Housing is about to get a lot more expensive in the next decade if the federal government’s immigration program bringing in skilled workers isn’t revamped. Many in the construction industry say there aren’t enough domestic workers going into jobs that don’t require an apprenticeship or certificate and the current system bringing in newcomers only covers highly skilled workers.

About US$5 trillion in shareholder value was wiped off the S&P 500 on Thursday and Friday, as concerns over an escalating global trade war hit markets.

The selloff in stocks deepened following United States President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” announcements of the harshest tariffs in about a century. On Friday, China announced a 34 per cent tariff on all U.S. imports in retaliation, as fears grow that tariff moves will trigger a global recession.

Here’s what investors need to know about the selloff, the worst two-day market decline since the COVID pandemic.

Major indexes

The S&P 500 index ended Friday in its worst two-day rout since March 2020, dropping more than 10 per cent and losing about US$5 trillion in value. The Nasdaq 100 declined by about six per cent, pushing it into bear market territory. The Dow Jones industrial average also fell more than five per cent. In Canada, the S&P/TSX composite index closed 4.7 per cent lower, to 23,193.47 points, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Though Morningstar’s Canada index plummeted 3.25 per cent Friday morning, it has continued to outperform the firm’s U.S. index.

Volatility index

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), the market’s “fear gauge,” surged to nearly 45.31, a closing level last reached in the opening months of the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating heightened investor anxiety. This reflects concerns over the escalating trade war and its potential to trigger a global recession. ​Since its launch, the VIX, which measures the expected volatility of the S&P 500, has averaged about 20 per cent. “When there is fear in the market, as the VIX is telling us, everything will sell off,” Jay Woods, chief global strategist at Freedom Capital Markets, told Bloomberg.

Sectors hardest hit

Energy and technology sectors experienced notable declines due to their sensitivity to global trade dynamics. Oil hit a four-year low on expectations of a global slowdown, with West Texas Intermediate crude falling more than six per cent to about US$62 a barrel, according to Oilprice.com. Brent crude was down about six per cent to about US$66, the lowest since 2021, as OPEC+ moves to increase output just as tariffs threaten energy demand.

Big Tech stocks with exposure to tariff-hit China slumped, including Nvidia Corp., which dropped more than seven per cent, Tesla Inc., which dropped more than 10 per cent, and Apple Inc., which dropped more than seven per cent.

Other stocks hit hard included Boeing Co., which fell more than nine per cent, and Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which declined more than seven per cent, leading the Dow lower.

Safe havens: bonds, crypto and gold

Investors are buying government bonds, leading to a significant drop in yields. The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below four per cent. Bitcoin was trading about one per cent higher at just over US$84,000 on Friday. Investors have been buying more gold and gold funds recently, pushing the price to a record US$3,148.88 a troy ounce this week as they seek a safe haven from market uncertainty. But bullion slipped more than two per cent to US$3,037.65 an ounce, caught up in the selloff.

• Stocks plunge and that may be start of pain for Canadian consumers
• Bank of Canada April rate cut in play as job market weakens
• History shows market meltdowns are short-lived

Buy the dip?

Though retail investors often see opportunity when stocks dip, even they seem to be spooked. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reported retail orders amount to net selling of US$1.5 billion as of noon, compared with figures showing individuals were net buyers of US$4.7 billion of shares just a day ago.

The fastest U.S. stock market selloff since the depths of the COVID pandemic has left valuations looking cheaper than they have been for a while, but the S&P 500’s trailing price-to-earnings ratio still sits at 23, with room to fall further.

• Stocks plunge and that may be start of pain for Canadian consumers
• Bank of Canada April rate cut in play as job market weakens
• History shows market meltdowns are short-lived

Given concerns about inflation and tariffs, analysts lowered earnings per share estimates for S&P 500 companies for the first quarter by a larger margin compared with the three most recent averages , according to FactSet Research Systems Inc. “What we’re seeing is a big reassessment of global risk but obviously focused on the U.S.,” James Rossiter, head of global macro strategy at TD Securities, told CNBC.

— With files from Bloomberg.com

 

The shock of United States President Donald Trump’s global trade war has already hit the stock portfolios of Canadian consumers, but that may be just the beginning of the pain.

“This is the biggest realignment in global trade ever,” said Walid Hejazi, an associate professor of international business at the Rotman School of Management.

Here’s a look at the risks facing consumers.

Stock market losses

U.S. stock markets have shed a staggering US$6.4 trillion in market capitalization in just two days, according to The Wall Street Journal. On Thursday, after reciprocal tariffs were announced, the S&P 500 index fell five per cent, its biggest one-day drop since 2020 and followed that up with a bigger decline on Friday.

China soon retaliated to Trump’s reciprocal tariffs (he slapped tariffs of 34 per cent on the nation) with matching levies on all imported goods from the U.S., which only rattled the market further. The S&P 500 was down more than 17 per cent from its mid-February high on Friday.

The losses continued Monday with the S&P 500 down 3.8 per cent in early trading. The index has lost more than 20 per cent since setting a record less than two months ago and if it finishes the day below that mark will be in a bear market.

The S&P/TSX composite index was trading down 825.74 points or 3.56 per cent.

In the meanwhile, multiple brokerages, including UBS Group AG and Royal Bank of Canada Capital Markets, slashed their year-end targets for the S&P 500.

Hejazi said that if Canada and Mexico come to a deal with the U.S., there might be some recovery in financial markets — though this could be stifled if more countries retaliate with tariffs like China.

Recession fears are growing

JPMorgan analysts recently said the odds of a global recession  have increased to 60 per cent.

“The big threat is uncertainty, and people don’t know what’s coming,” Hejazi warned. “The longer this goes on, the bigger the impact you’re going to see on the real economy.”

Canada already lost 33,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.7 per cent.

“Now that many tariffs are in place, the trend in the upcoming months is more layoffs and unemployment as tariffs cause widespread economic pains,” wrote Tu Nguyen, an economist at RSM Canada LLP, in a recent note.

“This will be especially prominent in trade-dependent industries such as wholesale and retail trade, manufacturing, especially auto production, and steel and aluminum, due to tariffs.”

Nguyen added that shrinking demand for goods and services will reduce the appetite for talent, which coupled with recession fears, could potentially lead to layoffs and a slowdown in hiring across sectors.

Hejazi said negative expectations could take on a life of their own.

“When people become pessimistic, they stop spending,” he said. “It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy … and it makes the recession more likely.”

Rising prices

Economists from Toronto-Dominion Bank recently said U.S. inflation is at risk of approaching four per cent or more, with consumers already starting to “tap the brakes” on spending.

In comparison, they anticipate consumer price growth in Canada to stretch to more than three per cent this summer.

Hejazi noted that Canada is only grappling with a trade war with the U.S., while the latter has launched a trade war “with everybody,” exacerbating the breadth and scale of price growth for American consumers.

Yale University’s The Budget Lab predicted 2025 tariffs will cause U.S. prices to rise 2.3 per cent in the short-term, the equivalent to a US$3,800 loss per household.

The report said clothing and textiles will be disproportionately impacted, with apparel prices surging 17 per cent, but goods like metals, electrical equipment and rice could see hefty price increases as well.

Canadian consumers won’t be immune to the pain of higher prices, and they aren’t just going to be placed on American goods with tariffs, Hejazi warned.

• Bank of Canada April rate cut in play as job market weakens
• Canada dodged tariff slamdown, but recession still coming

“When American products become more expensive, Canadian companies raise their prices as well,” Hejazi said, adding that the longer we experience sustained inflation , the harder it can be to bring it under control.

“The challenge is that we’re probably going to see prices rise gradually and it’s going back to that self-fulfilling (prophecy) and inflationary expectations becoming entrenched.”

• Email: slouis@postmedia.com

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U.S. President Donald Trump extended a deadline by 75 days for Chinese technology company ByteDance to sell U.S. assets of popular short video app TikTok to a non-Chinese buyer or face a ban that was supposed to have taken effect in January under a 2024 law.

It’s hard for political parties to find breakthrough campaign promises in an election overshadowed by a global economic crisis, but Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre’s proposed capital gains tax deferral for money reinvested in Canada managed to prick many ears. Here, the Financial Post looks at the policy, how it would work and whether it could be the economic “rocket fuel” Poilievre claims.

What is the proposal?

Currently, the capital gain inclusion rate is 50 per cent, meaning half of any profit made from selling stocks, bonds, real estate or other investment is taxable.

Under the Conservatives’ proposed Canada First Reinvestment Tax Cut policy , an individual or corporation that sells an asset can defer paying taxes on capital gains if they reinvest the proceeds in Canada. Examples given by the Conservatives include Canadian businesses, stocks, farms, homebuilding, technology and manufacturing.

The tax deferral would apply to reinvestments made between July 1, 2025, and Dec. 31, 2026. The Conservatives said in a press release that if the policy generates a “major economic boom,” they’ll make it permanent.

The Conservatives note that the current lifetime capital gains exemption limit for the sale of small business corporation shares, farm property and fishing property won’t change, so small business owners and farmers would still qualify for both the new proposed tax break and the existing exemption.

How would it work and how much would it cost?

In a video explaining the policy, Poilievre said “Canadians will only pay capital gains tax on accumulated gains when they cash out for good or take their money out of Canada.”

Examples of eligible tax break scenarios provided by the Conservatives include a deli owner who sells their business and reinvests the proceeds in a new Canadian company; a manufacturing business that reinvests in a new Canadian factory, or a rental company that sells a building and reinvests the money to build more apartment complexes.

The Conservatives argue the short-term loss in government revenue would be offset by job creation and economic growth. They also said Canadian companies that invest abroad will have a “powerful incentive” to reinvest their money within Canada. In the video, Poilievre claimed when investors do cash out and pay capital gains tax on all investment gains, the “government will still get its share, but later and bigger.”

At a news conference on March 30, Poilievre said the investment credit would cost the government a total of $10.5 billion over two fiscal years: $5 billion in 2025-26 and $5.5 billion in 2026-27.

Who would benefit from the proposal?

The policy would benefit both individuals and businesses that have been sitting on an appreciated asset and reluctant to sell for fear of the tax hit. Companies in particular would stand to gain from the deferral by unlocking frozen capital and redeploying it to invest in their business, by, say, buying land for a bigger factory or new machinery or technology to increase their capacity.

Real estate developers would be incentivized to start new projects and companies or individuals with investments abroad could be motivated to move capital back into the country.

There is also potential upside for the broader economy, since it could spur investment and unlock otherwise dormant capital — or help eliminate what is known in behavioural economics as the “capital gains lock-in effect.”

The incentive could be a “game changer” as a longer-term or permanent measure, though the initial 18-month window might seem like a gamble to investors, said economist Don Drummond, Stauffer-Dunning fellow at Queen’s University and a fellow-in-residence at the C.D. Howe Institute.

What are people saying about it?

While the Conservatives haven’t released specific details on how the policy would work or be administered, the responses from business associations and corporate leaders have been largely positive.

Dan Kelly, head of the Canadian Federation of Independent Businesses, said in a post on X that the idea had the potential to really help Canadian small businesses. “Good to see capital gains raised as an election issue. Looking forward to details,” he said.

Franco Terrazzano, Federal Director of the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, said in a statement, “Capital gains taxes are a huge drag on Canada’s economy. Poilievre’s announcement is a big move to encourage more investment, more development and more growth in Canada.

François Brouard, professor of accounting and taxation at the Sprott School of Business at Carleton University, told the Financial Post that while reinvestment in Canada is a valuable objective, defining what qualifies as a Canadian investment and tracking the paper trails of millions of Canadians could be an administrative “nightmare.”

• Here are the eight cars that might qualify for tax cuts
• Here's why Bill C-69 is shaping up as a campaign wedge issue
• We need to hear candidates’ views on the globalist vision

Brouard gave the example of buying and selling shares in a mutual fund that holds a mix of investments from Canada and other countries. “You will need to trace each of the different investments that will be subsequent to the initial one, and you need to do this for everyone,” he said.

Drummond pointed out that the policy would largely appeal to high-income investors, and that Canadians with more modest incomes already have other tax deferral options available.

“If they have their investments within a tax-sheltered vehicle, an RRSP or a TFSA, they’ve already got the ultimate in capital gains deferral until they have to start taking it out of a RIF,” he said.

• Email: jswitzer@postmedia.com

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Dennis Darby, chief executive of Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters , talks with Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn about how manufacturers are coping in the uncertainty around Donald Trump’s tariffs and how renegotiating CUSMA is the solution.

• How Canada could win a 'no tariffs' deal
• These investments are 'immune' to Trump's trade war
• Interprovincial trade is silver lining in Trump's trade war

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Thousands of businesses convened on Hanover Germany this week for one of the largest industrial technology fairs in the world at a time when many nations, including Canada, are trying to adapt to U.S. tariffs and protectionism.

Canada’s economy lost jobs in March for the first time since January 2022, with the unemployment rate rising to 6.7 per cent from 6.6 per cent the month before, Statistics Canada said Friday.

The economy gave up 33,000 positions last month, missing analysts’ estimates for a gain of 10,000 jobs. However, their unemployment rate prediction was correct.

The jobless rate still sits below its recent high of 6.9 per cent in November 2024, but Statistics Canada said the rate has been trending higher since March 2023, when it stood at five per cent.

“Since March 2024, the unemployment rate has remained above its pre-COVID-19 pandemic average of six per cent (from 2017 to 2019),” the agency said in the release, adding it is taking longer for unemployed people to find work.

Here’s what economists think the latest employment data means for the economy, the Bank of Canada and interest rates .

Full-time jobs hit hard: Bank of Montreal

The March data signalled that “the widespread decline in business (and consumer) sentiment in the past two months played out in real decisions last month,” Douglas Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a note on Friday.

Full-time and private-sector positions took the brunt of the hit, with the former falling by what he called a “heavy 62,000.”

Porter said the unemployment rate would have chugged even higher had the participation rate not fallen.

He pointed to the increase in hours worked as one potential bright spot, but he interpreted it to mean that employers asked people to work longer hours rather than adding to their payrolls.

Porter thinks it’s too early to directly attribute the losses to U.S. tariffs, especially since the survey was taken prior to steel and aluminum duties coming into effect on March 12.

However, he does think the regional data tells the tale of the coming impact of tariffs, pointing to job losses in Ontario, Quebec and Manitoba. Alberta also lost positions.

“Ultimately, we believe that Ontario is most at risk from U.S. protectionism, and its jobless rate rose two ticks to 7.5 per cent,” he said.

He said he thinks the Bank of Canada will want to see more data before it implements another rate cut.

Policymakers “made it clear” following the interest rate cut in March that the only reason they did so was in response to United States President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.

“Falling energy prices and the end of the carbon tax will help dampen inflation pressures,” taking some pressure off the Bank of Canada, Porter said. However, poor employment numbers and slumping stock markets will “keep prospects of an April rate cut very much alive.”

For now, BMO is calling for the Bank of Canada to hold off on further rate cuts, “but the situation is, shall we say, fluid.”

 

Higher jobless rate on the way: Capital Economics

“The broad-based weakness in last month’s Labour Force Survey does not bode well for the outlook,” Bradley Saunders, North America economist at Capital Economics Ltd., said in a note, adding that theory is supported by surveys showing company hiring intentions have “sharply” fallen.

He said U.S. tariffs played a role in some of March’s job losses, attributing the 7,000 drop in manufacturing positions to Trump’s upending of trade routes and norms, but that is just the tip of the iceberg.

“While Canadian exporters may have escaped ‘Liberation Day’ relatively unscathed, we still expect U.S. tariffs to weigh on GDP growth — and, in turn, hiring — this year,” he said.

Saunders pointed to carmaker Stellantis NV’s decision to close its auto plant in Windsor, Ont., for at least two weeks starting Monday, which will affect 4,000 positions, as “evidence of the uncertainty that U.S. tariffs will pose for Canadian manufacturers going forward.”

Capital Economics thinks the unemployment rate will rise to seven per cent and that economic weakness will force the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates at the upcoming announcement on April 16.

‘Vast fluctuations’: RSM Canada

“Trade uncertainty is causing vast fluctuations in job numbers,” Tu Nguyen, an economist at tax consultancy RSM Canada LLP, said in a note.

Employment in Canada “fluctuated” earlier in the year as employers added positions to get ahead of the coming tariff storm.

“However, now that many tariffs are in place, the trend in the upcoming months is more layoffs and unemployment as tariffs cause widespread economic pain,” she said.

Nguyen expects this to especially be the case in trade-dependent sectors such as wholesale and retail, manufacturing, especially auto production, and steel and aluminum, with 25 per cent tariffs now in force in the automotive and the steel and aluminum sectors.

“Weariness about the macroeconomy and recession fears, including that of a global recession, will cause layoffs and delays in hiring across sectors,” she said.

Given that the extent of the job losses in March was a surprise, she said the Bank of Canada might feel compelled to cut rates by another 25 basis points to 2.5 per cent in April, even though Canada missed the reciprocal tariff bullet.

• Canada's economy loses 33,000 jobs
• Tariffs could lead to 160,000 job losses in second quarter

• Email: gmvsuhanic@postmedia.com

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The worldwide sell-off for financial markets slammed into an even higher, scarier gear on Friday after China matched U.S. President Donald Trump's big raise in tariffs in an escalating trade war, with markets facing their worst crisis since the COVID crash. 

Canadian consumers are bracing for higher prices and a potential economic downturn after the United States rolled out its latest round of tariffs .

Despite escaping U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest onslaught of reciprocal tariffs on countries around the world, Canada isn’t out of the woods by any means, Tu Ngyuen, an economist at consultant RSM Canada LLP, said.

“Economic uncertainty remains firmly entrenched, and more tariff announcements could be in the picture in the upcoming months,” she said in a recent note.

Canadians are already grappling with unpredictable and often unclear economic threats , but here’s how the tariffs that are currently in place could affect consumer pocketbooks .

What tariffs are currently in place?

The U.S. has imposed 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods that aren’t compliant under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), with a 10 per cent carveout for energy and potash, due to what the Trump administration claims are concerns about border security and fentanyl.

In the event that these tariffs are lifted, Canada will still face 12 per cent tariffs on non-CUSMA-compliant products due to Trump’s latest reciprocal tariff order . Other countries face reciprocal tariffs ranging from a minimum of 10 per cent to as high as 50 per cent. There are also 25 per cent tariffs against Canadian steel, aluminum and vehicles.

“It’s estimated that around 40 per cent of the dollar value of goods travelling across the border are declared as CUSMA-compliant, although more firms may make the effort to become compliant,” Toronto-Dominion Bank economists said in a note, adding that 80 per cent to 90 per cent of the value of exports is expected to become CUSMA-compliant in the near future.

“As it stands, the effective tariff on Canada is now around 10 per cent, up from less than two per cent before President Trump came into office,” the economists said.

Canada has matched Trump’s tariffs with 25 per cent tariffs on American imports as well, including on vehicles that are not compliant with CUSMA.

The first round of tariffs was focused on $30-billion worth of U.S. imports and was less likely to hurt Canadian consumers, but the tariffs on an additional $125-billion worth of goods are scheduled to follow.

Who pays the tariffs?

Tariffs are first paid by the importer, which means the 25 per cent tariff imposed on a Canadian product is paid by the company importing it from Canada into the U.S., with the revenue going toward the U.S. government, and vice versa for goods imported into Canada.

The importer can choose to either absorb the higher costs or pass some or all of the costs onto consumers. It’s less typical for the exporter to lower the price of their goods.

Michael McAdoo, a partner and director at Boston Consulting Group in Montreal, said different products have varying price elasticity and margins, which can impact how the importer manages the higher fees.

For example, a French luxury handbag could cost $400 to make and retail for $2,000 in the U.S. The 20 per cent reciprocal tariff the U.S. has imposed on France means the handbag now costs an extra $80 for the U.S. importer, which could end up just absorbing the higher costs since there’s a massive margin that gives them more cushioning.

On the other hand, an industrial product with a lower margin — say, something that costs $90 to manufacture, but retails for $100 — would be much more hurt by a 20 per cent tariff, since that takes the cost up to $108. In this scenario, the importer is more likely to pass on the higher price or find another way to reduce their costs.

However, McAdoo warned that some companies may also use tariffs as a pretext to raise their prices higher than the value of the tariff as well.

How will tariffs affect consumers?

Canadian tariffs on American imports mean consumers will shell out more money to pay for goods that they can’t substitute with cheaper products that are domestically produced or come from other countries.

But the cost to American consumers will be “significantly more devastating,” David Soberman, the Canadian national chair in strategic marketing at the Rotman School of Management, said. The U.S. has levied a barrage of tariffs on trading partners across the globe, while Canada is only paying more for American goods.

U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports won’t directly affect Canadians’ pocketbooks, but the fees become more complicated for finished goods that require parts or materials from Canada, are assembled in the U.S. and are then sold back to Canada.

For example, Soberman pointed to U.S. automobiles, which often require parts from Canada and move back and forth across the border, getting tariffed each time.

“(Economists fear) this is going to result in general increases in prices for everybody,” he said. “Even though we do produce a lot of finished goods here … most of our exports are things like lumber, oil and gas, potash and aluminum. These are typically raw materials that go into making other products that are then transformed and then sold back to consumers in both countries.”

Inflation in Canada is expected to eclipse the three per cent mark over the summer, according to economists at TD.

McAdoo suggested that the reciprocal trade tariffs on other countries could potentially benefit Canada if some exporters seeking a market with a similar consumer profile, but not charging tariffs choose to send more of their products here instead of to the U.S.

However, Soberman said the tariffs on goods from other countries could potentially reduce their demand and therefore their production, causing these countries to raise the price of their goods being sent to Canada as well.

What are the other indirect effects?

“The predictions now are fairly dire that if tariffs stay in place, they are going to drive the global economy into a recession because everyone is going to be hit really hard,” Hampson said.

Soberman said companies could start laying off employees, pointing to the recent pause at a Stellantis NV assembly plant in Windsor, Ont., and that will impact people’s incomes.

“Of course, when a factory closes, what also happens is that all the ancillary businesses that supply that factory also suffer,” he said, adding that spending within the local community may be reduced as well. “The ripple effects of these things are pretty significant.”

Soberman said the U.S. employment rate is less likely to take a hit since many American companies primarily supply American consumers.

Investors on both sides of the border are also feeling the pain, with stock markets around the world plunging due to growth fears.

• Canada hits back at U.S. vehicles as auto sector reels
• What you need to know about Trump's tariffs on potash
• Removing interprovincial trade barriers is a mirage

“The big Canadian pension funds invest heavily in U.S. equity markets, so their valuations are going to be affected,” said Hampson, adding that while Canadian investors with American stocks will undoubtedly take a hit, Canadian stocks are also sliding.

The S&P/TSX composite index dropped more than 3.8 per cent on Thursday, its biggest intraday drop since January 2022. However, it still outperformed the S&P 500, which plummeted to its lowest level since August.

• Email: slouis@postmedia.com

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Statistics Canada says this is the biggest monthly job loss since January 2022, and comes as the U.S. posts unexpectedly high job gains.